No. 5 Boise State Broncos (5-0) 3-0 ATS, 2-2 O/U at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-1) 2-1 ATS, 0-4 O/U Wednesday October 14, 2009 8:00 p.m. TV: ESPN, ESPN HD
by Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Boise State -9, Tulsa +9
The Boise State Broncos are still one of the top ranked teams in the nation even though they didn’t look exactly dominate against UC Davis last weekend. Head coach Chris Petersen agrees that his guys need to address some mistakes. The Broncos were just 4 of 10 on third down conversions and fizzled out on a number of offensive drives. It was not the best game for style points or God forbid, a highlight reel to boost the Broncos BCS argument but Petersen said he honestly doesn’t care about any of the outside influences. In fact he only hopes that if anything, his team will use this game as a wake up call as they head into Tulsa this week.
Bronco QB Kellen Moore still managed to throw for 285 yards and three touchdowns. Moore got plenty of help from wide receiver Austin Pettis who pulled in 10 catches for 129 yards and two touchdowns.
Boise State struggled to run the ball like they usually do as they only picked up 111 yards on the ground compared to their average 214 in their previous outings. RB Jeremy Avery had 70 yards on 15 carries while Doug Martin gained 41 yards on 16 touches and one touchdown for the Broncos.
The Bronco’s defense stuffed the run but failed to cause a turnover, and were also penalized 9 times for 61 yards.
Tulsa comes into this matchup after beating Rice 27-10. The Golden Hurricane’s are averaging 32 points per game and allowing 16.2 to their opponents. They have beat up on every team they’ve played except the 45-0 loss to the then No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners. Maybe the Hurricane’s haven’t played exactly the top caliber programs in the country but they are 4-1 regardless and put a lot of points on the board.
Tulsa QB G.J. Kinne was 21 of 32 for 251 yards and one touchdown. The Golden Hurricane only had a total of 385 yards of offense but it was enough to put away Rice. Tulsa has not allowed a rushing touchdown this season, so it will be interesting to see how they defend the Broncos running game.
Boise is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Tulsa is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The over is 11-3 for Tulsa in the last 14 games versus a WAC opponent.
This game opened at Tulsa +9 but most online casinos have Tulsa at +9.5 and +10. The Las Vegas casinos have not put out a line on this game (as of press time) but they will likely be within a half point of the online sportsbooks.
Boise State should get back on track this week. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and ESPN HD which will once again give the Broncos a national stage to show off their BCS potential. You can count on Tulsa bringing everything they have including some primetime plays that will test the Bronco’s defense.
The Broncos have won the last four meetings dating back to a 45-42 win in 2004.
This game may be a good matchup between QBs as they have 23 touchdown passes between them. Moore has a slight edge in completion rating at 69 percent to Kinne’s 64. They each have 2 INTs but that is small potatoes compared to the other accomplishments.
Boise State is averaging 40 points per game and giving up just 14.4 to the opposition, so both of these teams have familiar numbers. I like Boise State to stay unbeaten this Wednesday at Tulsa but it won’t come easy. The Golden Hurricane could possibly cause trouble for the Broncos.
Wilson’s Pick: Boise State 31, Tulsa 28. Luck to ya.