Boise State at Colorado State
Saturday, November 7, 2026
6:00 PM ET, Canvas Stadium
Boise State is a 17.5-point favorite over Colorado State with a total of 68.5, and my play is Boise State -17.5.
This line opened at 19.5, and the two points it dropped come down to one question: who plays quarterback for the No. 20 Broncos? Maddux Madsen hurt his left knee late in last week’s wild 46-45 win over Texas State, and Spencer Danielson is calling him day-to-day. The good news is the MRI showed nothing long-term. The better news, if you’re laying the points, is that it barely matters against this Colorado State defense.
The Riley problem
Dylan Riley has 1,049 rushing yards, second-most in the country, and Boise runs for 222.8 yards a game as a team. Now look at what’s lined up across from him. Colorado State is dead last in FBS in rushing yards allowed at 261.1 a game, and dead last in points allowed too.
Utah State handled the Rams 31-14 last week, and in October they gave up 56 to Oregon State and 66 to Texas State.
Jim Mora didn’t sugarcoat it after Logan. “That was awful, an awful performance by all of us starting with me not getting the team ready to go,” the first-year coach said. He knows what’s coming too, calling Riley “one of the best running backs in the country.” Knowing it and stopping it are two different things for a front that can’t win at the line of scrimmage.
Here’s why the quarterback news doesn’t scare me. A team that wins with its running back doesn’t need a great day from its quarterback. Boise holds the ball for 35 minutes and 48 seconds a game, second-most in the country, and that’s a recipe that works with anybody under center.
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Max Cutforth has seen this movie before
If Madsen sits, Max Cutforth starts, and I’m not sure the drop-off is two points’ worth. Cutforth came off the bench against Texas State with Boise trailing 39-28, its 28-3 halftime lead long gone. He threw three touchdown passes and led three straight touchdown drives to win it.
He also made three starts last season, and two of them were wins, including a 49-21 beating of Colorado State. “If Maddux isn’t ready to go, we have full trust in Max,” Danielson said. I believe him.
The motivation is there, too. Boise is 4-0 in the Pac-12, and wins over Colorado State and Oregon State would lock up a home game in the conference title game on December 4. The Broncos look like the front-runner for the Group of Six playoff spot, and style points still count in that race. This is not a team that’s going to coast.
The ratings agree. SP+ has Boise by about 17 even with Colorado State’s home field built in, PRIME says 20, and ESPN’s FPI says 23.5. Taken together, they say this line is short.
Where it goes sideways
I’d be lying if I said last week didn’t bother me. Boise was up 28-3 at halftime and gave up 36 straight points. The Broncos’ pass defense ranks 127th in yards allowed, and Colorado State quarterback Hauss Hejny, back from a hamstring injury, has 14 total touchdowns and the Rams score 35.5 points a game. If Boise gets a big lead and goes into cruise control again, a backdoor cover in the fourth quarter is very much in play. And if Madsen is out and Cutforth struggles, the Broncos’ offense could stall for a quarter or two.
There’s also the ghost of Fort Collins. Boise leads this series 13-1, and the one loss came on a Hail Mary to Dallin Holker the last time the Broncos played here. Weird things happen in this building.
I’ll take the chance anyway. Boise runs the ball, keeps it away from the Rams and wears them down in the second half. Colorado State has given up 49 or more four times this season, and nothing about this matchup suggests the run defense suddenly figures it out.
Projected score: Boise State 41, Colorado State 20
The Pick: Boise State -17.5
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