Boston College Eagles (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (5-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday October 13th, 2012. 5:30PM Eastern
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee, F.L.
TV: ESPN2
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BC +28/FSU -28
Over/Under Total: 55
Just over a week ago, all was right in the world for Seminoles nation. After all, Florida State was undefeated and their favorable schedule made them a frontrunner in the National Championship hunt. Fast forward to present day and the Seminoles are still in shock after last week’s 17-16 loss to North Carolina State. The loss nearly put a dagger on any hopes for the Seminoles’ return to glory. Letdowns have become a theme for Florida State fans over the last few years considering they have been so close to hitting the big stage for the first time in the post Bobby Bowden era. This week the Seminoles have to put the pieces back together and try to regain focus when the Boston College Eagles roll into Doak Campbell Stadium.
The Seminoles will be huge 28 point favorites in this revenge type setting as they return home for the first time in 3 weeks. Florida State is clearly the most talented team compared to Boston College, but has only split the last 6 games against the Eagles with a 3-3 mark SU. Boston College, despite being just 1-4 on the year, has been competitive in every game they have played this season. In the Eagles’ 4 losses, all of those games have been decided by 9 points or less. Perhaps the bigger question is how does Florida State respond to last week’s loss? If you remember, Florida State fell apart after their first loss of the season to Oklahoma last year and had a similar collapse after losing to North Carolina State in 2010.
Just a few weeks ago, the Seminoles were in dominant form flexing their muscles to the nation with a 52-0 bludgeoning against Wake Forest and then against the next week in a big 49-37 victory over no. 10 Clemson. Will we see that dominate Seminoles team that moved the football at will in those two games or the offense that gained just 343 yards and 16 points against North Carolina State? One thing that was lacking to some degree last week for the Seminoles offense was the running game. The Seminoles had averaged nearly 250 yards per game on the ground going into Raleigh before the Wolfpack held the Florida State offense to just 125 rushing yards. Running back Chris Thompson eclipsed the century mark for the 3rd time this season while averaging 5.6 yards per carry which has come to be the norm.
However, QB E.J Manuel was unable to get anything going through the air completing just 58% passing for 218 yards with 1 score and a pick. Manuel was under distress most of the game and the Wolfpack defense sacked him 4 times. Manuel is not your prototypical pocket passer and it is important that the Seminoles offensive front protects him for the passing game to be effective. Manuel will need to be efficient in the big games for the Seminoles this year and his play will be important going forward.
For Boston College, their defense does not match up extremely well in this game hence the 4 touchdown underdog opening line. The Eagles defense is among the worst teams in the nation against the run allowing 259 yards per game which plays into the strength of Florida State’s elusive running game. The Eagles defense must play well up front to plug holes in the run game and put pressure on E.J Manuel to be effective.
Offensively, Boston College has a solid passing game with QB Chase Rettig and star wideout Alex Amidon. Rettig has thrown for 1,526 yards with 10 touchdowns and just 3 picks this season despite a less than stellar 56.8 completion percentage. However, Amidon has been a true playmaker for the offense racking up 644 receiving yards which is 2nd best in the ACC this year. Amidon presents some opportunities for the Boston College offense and they will need a big game from their key players to make a run at Florida State this Saturday.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This should be an easy bounce back spot for Florida State considering they match-up very well against Boston College. If Chris Thompson continues to run well and the Seminoles get a solid defensive showing, they should cover. Take FSU -28.
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