Bowling Green Falcons (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Toledo Rockets (6-4 SU,
5-5 ATS), Week 12 NCAA Football, 8:00 p.m. EST, Wednesday, November
17, 2010, Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio, TV: ESPN2
by Badger of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: BG +10/Tol -10
Over/Under Total: 54
Once again the Bowling Green Falcons find themselves in a Wednesday
Night Mid-American Conference showcase game on ESPN2 when this week
they travel to the Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets.
The Falcons played in last Wednesdays game, losing to Miami (OH) by
a 24-21 score when their late fourth quarter rally fell a little
short. Turnovers continue to plague Bowling Green this season, as
quarterback Matt Schilz threw two more interceptions in the Miami
loss to give the Falcons six defeats in their last seven games.
Toledo also played on ESPN2 in a MAC mid-week telecast, getting
rolled in Tuesdays game by Northern Illinois, 65-30. It was a tail
of two halves last week for the Rockets, who didnt decide to play
until they were down 28-0 at halftime. Their defense never did show
up and gave up 584 yards of offense to Northern Illinois in the game,
so the Rockets have plenty of motivation to save face at home in the
Glass Bowl in this weeks national broadcast.
Oddsmaker opened the game with Toledo as 11-point favorites, but the early money has forced them to adjust the point spread down to 10-
points at most offshore sportsbooks. There are a few sitting right in
between at 10.5 too, so the Rockets will likely enter Wednesday
Nights game as double-digit favorites.
The over/under total has just started to pop up on the boards at a
few offshore sportsbooks, opening up at 54 at the handful of places
that are already taking bets on the total.
The total might not be high enough yet, because this game could turn
into another one of those MAC track meets to the end zone with these
two defenses.
Bowling Greens problems with turnovers on offense overshadowed the fact that their defense played decent last week, forcing three
fumbles of their own. But the Falcons have one of the worst run
defenses in the country, allowing 202.5 yards per game on the ground,
which could become a huge problem against a Toledo offense that runs
the ball for over 151 yards a game. Expect Toledo to run the ball
more with those odds, and because it will help take pressure of
freshman quarterback Terrance Owens to try and make plays with his arm.
Toledos defense had its problems with the Huskies last week, but the
Huskies have done that to a lot of teams in the MAC this season.
Still, they do allow a lot of yardage (379 ypg) though, and a
majority of that yardage has come via the pass (232 ypg) as the
Rockets secondary seems to give up a lot of big plays down the field
(29.2 ppg).
All of this plays into Bowling Greens strength on offense, since
Schilz and the Falcons have one of the worst running games in the
country (60.5 ypg 120th). Running back Willie Geter did return from
injury last week to score two touchdowns for the Falcons, but hes
still more of a pass-catching threat in the Falcons spread offense.
Bowling Green does have a three-game winning streak going against the
Rockets in MAC play the past few years, beating them 38-24 last year
in Bowling Green and in the Glass Bowl in 2008, 38-10. The Falcons
have also gone 3-0 ATS during the streak, with the under cashing in
all three games too.
But this current three-year span runs exactly opposite to the previous three years from 2004 through 2006, during which Toledo won
all three games and also went 3-0 ATS. The over cashed in all three
as well to complete the bizzaro-world scenario.
Two betting trends that are pointing in the Rockets favor are that
the home team is a solid 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games in the head-to-
head series, and the Falcons have been a lousy wager in the Glass
Bowl in the past, with the last time there as the only win in Toledo
since 2000 (1-4 ATS).
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The safe bet for this game is the over of 54, because
both teams seem to think defense is optional (and the whole MAC
conference for that matter). But Im taking the better team, at home,
motivated for redemption in a bounce back game. Im taking Toledo
minus the 10 points.
