Buffalo Bulls vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks Prediction 11/9/21

by | Nov 8, 2021 | cfb

Buffalo Bulls (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 9, 7 p.m.

Where: Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio

TV: ESPNU

Point Spread: BUFF +7/M-OH -7 (Bovada - These guys have the best live betting platform on the web! Betting on a game AFTER you’ve had a chance to watch which team is motivated and which team isn’t is a GREAT way to wager on football! They’re awesome!)

Total: O/U 57

Outlook

Miami’s still in the race for the MAC Eastern Division, but the RedHawks are now in a precarious position. Losing to Ohio meant that the RedHawks gave away their cushion, especially when Kent State then followed up by knocking off Northern Illinois, putting the Golden Flashes one game ahead of the RedHawks. Miami now has to hold serve against Buffalo because if the RedHawks lose again, Kent State can put the race to bed before Miami ever gets a chance to try to take down the Flashes.
Buffalo already had its shot at the Flashes and couldn’t handle them, and the Bulls likely took themselves out of the race entirely in getting beat at home against previous bottom-feeder Bowling Green. Despite a 36-11 advantage in first downs and having the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game, Buffalo ended up on the wrong end of the scoreboard because the Bulls couldn’t stop the Falcons from hitting the big play. Miami is more of a defensive team than Bowling Green, but the RedHawks can sling it when necessary, as Brett Gabbert is coming off throwing for 492 yards against Ohio.

How the Public is Betting the Buffalo/Miami-Ohio Game

The public believes in the Bulls more than the RedHawks, as 72 percent of the tickets have come in on Buffalo. That hasn’t been enough to affect the line or total in either direction.

Injury Concerns

Buffalo:
Defensive end Taylor Riggins (undisclosed), running back Kevin Marks Jr (undisclosed), defensive end Max Michel (undisclosed), and quarterback Kyle Vantrease (lower body) are questionable. Wide receiver Jovany Ruiz (knee) is out.

Miami-Ohio:
Miami-Ohio reports no injuries.

When Buffalo Has the Ball

Not having Kevin Marks healthy has really hurt Buffalo’s attack. The Bulls’ system is predicated on two talented running backs overwhelming the opposing defense, but Jaret Patterson declared for the NFL Draft, and Marks hasn’t been healthy in a month, last playing in the loss to Kent State. That’s made the job much tougher for the Buffalo running game, as Dylan McDuffie has had to shoulder the load on his own. It’s worked out for him, as he’s averaging close to six yards a carry, but it has made it tougher for the Buffalo offense to only be able to count on one back instead of two.
The good news for the Bulls is that they’ve gotten more out of the passing game this season, as Kyle Vantrease has become more comfortable throwing the ball. But Vantrease is also banged up, and Buffalo really doesn’t want to try to get into a scoring contest with Miami. The Bulls don’t have the defense to slow down other teams, so covering a lot of yards in a hurry isn’t their style of play. Buffalo wants to keep its offense on the field so that its defense is well protected.

When Miami-Ohio Has the Ball

The RedHawks can throw it when they have to, as Brett Gabbert let it rip in the second half against Ohio and threw for 492 yards and five touchdowns. Problem was, the RedHawks had already dug their own grave to that point, so Gabbert couldn’t get Miami out of the deep hole and keep them from avoiding a costly loss.

Besides, that’s not really the way Miami wants to play. The RedHawks much prefer to rely on the defense and use their passing attack to slowly chew up yards, which is part because they do it well and part because the Miami running game is really weak. Keyon Mozee leads the RedHawks with just 355 yards on the year, and Kevin Davis and Kenny Tracy don’t yet get enough touches to affect a game. When Miami does go deep, Jack Sorenson is likely to be Gabbert’s target, as he’s caught 56 passes for 986 yards on the season, easily Miami’s leader in both categories.

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Betting Trends

This is a series where home-field advantage matters. The home team has covered and won outright in each of the past four meetings, all of which have been decided by at least 10 points. Buffalo hasn’t won in Oxford since 2015, which was also the last time that these teams played a game decided by a single score.
The other trend that tends to follow this series is a lot of points from both teams. The over has cashed in 12 of the last 16 matchups in this series and is 8-1 in the past nine meetings in Oxford. That fits well with Buffalo’s Tuesday night MACtion performances; the Bulls have cashed the over in seven of their past eight games on Tuesdays.

Weather Report

A shower could get in the way of this game as temperatures plunge into the mid-40s, but once it’s out of the way, it should be a typical November evening for football. Wind will blow at just five miles per hour to the northwest.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Miami’s poor performance on defense against Ohio scares me in this one. The Bobcats run the ball as much as the Bulls do, and the RedHawks couldn’t get control against a lesser opponent in a game they really needed to win. Buffalo also left a lot to be desired against Bowling Green, which leads me to believe that both defenses are going to get shredded in this game.
For me, the best bet on the board is the over, but I think Buffalo can get the edge in this battle and possibly spring an upset. If the Bulls lose here, that’s probably it for their bowl hopes, so I’ll take Buffalo and the points. Note: A TON of bettors got smoked last week and busted out. Instead of re-depositing at your bookie and getting a tiny reup bonus or NOTHING, consider grabbing a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!