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Buffalo vs. Ohio Point Spread Pick

by | Nov 12, 2018 | cfb

Buffalo Bulls (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) vs. Ohio Bobcats (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 11

Date/Time: Wednesday November 14th, 2018. 7:00PM (EST)

Where: Peden Stadium Athens, O.H.

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread:BUFF -2/OHIO +2

Over/Under Total: TBA

College Football features back to back primetime games in the MAC this week on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highlighting the Wednesday slate is a showdown between the Buffalo Bulls and Ohio Bobcats at Peden Stadium on ESPN2. Buffalo continues to be the Cinderella story in the MAC this year with a 9-1 SU mark which is the most in school history. The Bulls also sport one of the best marks in the country for bettors at 8-2 ATS on the season which ranks 2nd among all teams. This week Buffalo has a tough road trip against Ohio but if they can pull out a victory; the Bulls would clinch the MAC East Division.

Battle of the quarterbacks Wednesday night

It may be surprising that Ohio is a mere 1 point dog ahead of Wednesday’s showdown with the Bulls who are seeking their 10th win of the season. However, this game is pretty equal when you consider the quality quarterback play that will be featured on both sides of the ball. Bobcats quarterback Nathan Rourke leads the MAC with the highest QB rating in the conference at 163.2 which ranks 12th nationally. Rourke has tossed 19 touchdowns with just 5 picks on the season while passing for just less than 2,000 yards. Rourke also is 2nd on the team in rushing with 653 yards, behind running back A.J Ouelette, with another 8 touchdowns. Therefore despite the talent differential, Rourke gives Ohio plenty of advantages to score the upset this week.

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo also has a prized quarterback in junior Tyree Jackson. Jackson leads the MAC with 24 touchdown passes despite completing just 56% passing with 8 interceptions this year. The entire Buffalo offense is loaded with talent. Running backs Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks have combined for nearly 1,400 rushing yards with 18 touchdowns. Meanwhile, WR K.J Osborn has been a force in the passing game with 761 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. Needless to say, Buffalo has plenty of options on offense. The problem for Buffalo’s offense at times has simply been consistency. If the offense runs into problems Wednesday, there is another offense on the other side of the field that can score points.

Every now and then bettors are given some circumstantial evidence to help indicate a possible angle. The trick is don’t look for circumstantial evidence that is not there. This week I believe we have plenty of indicators that support the argument for the home team. Aside from the match-up upside for the Bobcats offense, this Ohio team is looking for a bounce-back game following their loss to Miami (Ohio) last week. The loss snapped a 3 game winning streak for the Bobcats and also ended a 5 game winning streak over the Redhawks. Now the team gets to return home, where they have played great, against a team they have beaten 10 of the last 11 times inside Peden Stadium. Additionally, does the mere 1.5 point line against a 9-1 SU team not raise red flags? This seems like an obvious fade the public spot here.

Buffalo vs. Ohio betting trends

As mentioned earlier, Buffalo has been a great team for bettors this year at 8-2 ATS overall and have covered their last 5 straight games. The Bulls have also covered 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Meanwhile, Ohio has been solid this season as well. The Bobcats have covered the mark in 4 of their last 5 games and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Interestingly, the Bobcats are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games against the Bulls.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I have a feeling this is going to be an upset night. I think Ohio matches up very well in this game and has enough consistency on offense to stay one foot ahead. Take Ohio +2

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