Note: If you’re looking
for the 2014 Week 6 (10/3/14) matchup between these two teams, please go
State Aggies vs. BYU Cougars Pick.
Brigham Young Cougars (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Utah State Aggies (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date and Time: Friday, October 4th, 8:00pm
Where: Romney Stadium Logan, Utah
TV: CBS Sports Network
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BYU +6/USU -6
Over/Under Total: 58
It is not very often that I look at college football matchups between a
team from the Mountain West taking on BYU, and I say to
myself, “Wow, that will be a good game.” However, that is exactly what I
did when I saw that the Cougars from Brigham Young would travel into Logan
to take on the Utah State Aggies. Both of these teams have
seen themselves on the field with big time programs already this season.
BYU has already defeated the Texas Longhorns, and Utah State nearly pulled
the upset over USC, who just recently fired their head coach, Lane Kiffin.
I see this game being extremely competitive. Of course Utah State has the
edge, coming in as a six point favorite, but I can seriously see this game
going either way.
We will start by breaking down the BYU Cougars. Brigham Young enters this game with a record of 2-2. Their defining moment so far this season was their 19 point win over the Texas Longhorns. The Cougars not only upset the Longhorns, but they rushed for so many yards, the defensive coordinator was fired the next day… yea, it was that bad. BYU put up an astonishing 550 yards rushing against Texas; 259 of them to Taysom Hill alone. This team can run the ball, obviously, but in the passing department, they have plenty of room for improvement. Coming into this game, the Cougars are only passing for a little over 180 yards per game, ranking them out of the top 100 in the FBS. This will need to change. Yea, BYU will get their yards on the ground, they always do, but to have a legit shot to come into Logan and leave with a win, they MUST make the Aggies at least respect the pass. With the Utah State defense stacking the box and not playing pass, there will be no true threat of the BYU backs carrying them to victory. If I am BYU, I come out throwing deep… send a message that you are here to play, and not just sit back and play off the run game all day.
Utah State has been underrated all year long. How do I know that? Because they are 4-1 against the spread. Yea their straight up record is only 3-2, but they are 2-0 in conference play, and are becoming many experts favorite to take home the MWC title. The Aggies offense is almost a total opposite of that of BYU’s. Where I said, BYU likes to run the ball, Utah State puts it in the air quite often. The Aggies rank in the top 30 in passing yards per game, and their quarterback, Chuckie Keeton has already thrown for 17 TD passes and just 1 pick. I probably should also mention that the Utah State running game is nothing to laugh at. They come in with a respectable ranking of 44th in the nation, gaining nearly 205 yards per contest. So, it is evident that they are a much more balanced team than BYU. The key to this game for Utah State is defense. Can they slow down the BYU rushing attack? If the answer is yes, then I think it can be a good day for the Aggies, but if BYU gets on a roll, it could get ugly really quick in Logan.
What a tough game to handicap. Both of these teams step up pretty well in big games. Utah State nearly took down USC, and BYU manhandled Texas. I know without a doubt that both teams will be prepared both physically and mentally. So let’s look at some trends in this matchup: First off, right now, there appears to be a slight edge that the public gives to Utah State. The home favorite right now is getting about 64% of the action, but that has dropped from 70% just yesterday. The line appears to be adjusting itself out, and I plan to se a 6-7 point spread stay on this game right until kickoff. BYU has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Utah State. There are some numbers that truly make this game a toss up to me: BYU has covered the spread in their last 8 games coming in as the underdog, BYU has won the last two games over Utah State straight up, and BYU has also covered 12 of their last 15 games played on turf. Those all sound like great reasons to pick the Cougars, well, slow your roll…check out these numbers: Utah State has covered the spread in 15 of their last 18 games played, Utah State is 10-1 against the spread as the favorite in the last 2 seasons, and last but not least, Utah State has covered the last 2 spreads versus BYU. That’s right, BYU has covered the last 2 spreads in this contest, but Utah State has won the last two games, heads up.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: If you are anything
like me, you are probably telling yourself, “Well this article has not helped
me at all. In fact, I am even more torn now on who to pick than I was before
I read it.” I am making this pick on pure gut feeling. Take BYU. BYU is
more aggressive, they run the ball A LOT, and they are the underdog. I like
the points here. With no true logical reason, I say do it, take BYU in the
upset. PICK THE COUGARS +6
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