BYU at Utah
Saturday, November 7, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Rice-Eccles Stadium
Utah is a 5.5-point favorite over BYU with a total of 48.5, and my play is Utah -5.5.
This is the first time these two have met with both teams in the top 10, and it kicks off at 10 a.m. local time, so Salt Lake City gets the biggest Holy War ever before most people have finished their coffee. No. 3 Utah is 8-0 under first-year head coach Morgan Scalley. No. 7 BYU is 7-1 and has won the last three in this series. Bragging rights matter, but the Big 12 title race matters more. Utah is alone in first, and BYU and Texas Tech are a game back at 4-1.
The streak is a real thing, and so is BYU’s knack for showing up as an underdog. But this matchup comes down to which team can actually run the football. Only one of them can right now.
Utah has five ways to beat you, and BYU has one
Utah’s offense is a bit of everything. The Utes average 38.9 points and 226.9 rushing yards per game, both top-11 nationally, and Wayshawn Parker is gaining 6.7 yards a carry. Devon Dampier is completing 69.6% of his passes and has thrown 18 touchdowns. Last week at Cincinnati he went 22-of-29 for 260 yards and three scores in a 49-25 rout.
The part that should scare BYU is how long Utah keeps the ball. The Utes convert 54.1% of their third downs, third-best in the country, and average 33:25 in time of possession. That means long, clock-chewing drives against a BYU defense with a lot of banged-up starters. Linebackers Cade Uluave and Isaiah Glasker and safety Faletau Satuala are all playing hurt, and cornerback Evan Johnson is questionable at best.
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Bear Bachmeier can’t do this alone
BYU’s offense starts and ends with Bear Bachmeier. He has 1,750 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and only four picks, and he’s dangerous when he runs. But star running back LJ Martin, last year’s Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, has missed four straight games with a severe ankle sprain. Without him, the ground game has disappeared. BYU gained just 283 total yards against Arizona State last week, and Kalani Sitake didn’t sugarcoat it: “After watching the film, there were quite a bit of missed assignments, guys not doing their part.”
Martin returned to practice this week, and Sitake said on his Tuesday coach’s show that he’s “looking good.” Even if he plays, though, he’ll be a back coming off a month on the shelf facing a Utah front that held Houston to 86 rushing yards. Utah has also forced at least one turnover in every game this season. That’s a bad matchup for a BYU team that sits at -0.4 per game in turnover margin, 96th in the country.
The case against laying it
The obvious hole in Utah’s armor is pass defense. The Utes give up 229 passing yards per game, 96th nationally, and Bachmeier is good enough to make them pay if they play loose. Utah has also hurt itself at times: Dampier threw two picks against Houston, and the Utes drew 10 flags against Kansas. Rivalry games produce weird bounces, and BYU has collected most of them lately. If Martin plays like himself, this gets much tighter.
Still, Utah is 7-1 against the spread, ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Utes a 65.7% win probability, and the balance of this offense against a one-dimensional BYU attack is the gap that decides it. I’ll lay the points at home and would still play it up to -6.5.
Projected score: Utah 31, BYU 20
The Pick: Utah -5.5
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