CFB Total Pick: Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

by | Sep 28, 2020 | cfb

No. 7 Auburn Tigers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, October 3rd 2020. 7:30PM (EST)

Where: Sanford Stadium Athens, GA

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: AUB +7/UGA -7 (BAS - 5Dimes has left the USA market but you can still bet on games at -105 odds there!)

Over/Under Total: 43

Two SEC powerhouses will collide Saturday night when the 7th ranked Auburn Tigers travel into Athens for a showdown with the 4th ranked Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. Both the Tigers and Bulldogs kicked off their 2020 campaigns with victories last week against conference foes. The Bulldogs dismantled an inferior Arkansas team 37-10 but left a ton of questions on the table. Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn’s Auburn Tigers conquered no. 23 Kentucky by a final score of 29-13 primarily by capitalizing on several critical turnovers.

Both Auburn and Georgia have legitimate SEC Championship hopes this season. The Bulldogs are the top dog in the SEC East, having made it to the SEC Championship in each of the past three seasons. However, this year the Bulldogs are expected to be challenged by Florida, who is currently ranked 3rd in the AP Top 25. Meanwhile, Auburn is looking to take advantage of LSU’s rebuilding process and challenge Alabama for the SEC West’s top spot. Both Georgia and Auburn’s problem is that both schedules are brutal in this season’s conference only format. Therefore, each game will have significant implications meaning neither Georgia nor Auburn can sustain a loss this early in the season and maintain legitimate SEC Championship aspirations.

Auburn vs. Georgia Betting Analysis

When you look at this Saturday’s game between the Tigers and Bulldogs, we will see a similar game plan from both schools. Everyone knows that Gus Malzahn’s offenses love to run the football and spread out defenses. Sophomore quarterback Bo Nix had his best outing of his young career last week against Kentucky. Nix completed 16 of 27 passing for 233 yards with three touchdowns. While those numbers do not sound extremely impressive, keep in mind that Nix just barely hovered above the 50% completion mark for the entire 2019 season. Against a tougher Georgia defense this week, expect Malzahn to move his young quarterback around and attempt to establish the run. The Tigers ran the ball 30 times last week despite producing just 91 rushing yards. If Auburn has to rely on Nix’s pure passing ability, it could be troublesome.

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For Georgia, the good news is that the defense is really good. The Bulldogs have serious talent along the defensive front and can get after the quarterback. I’m not convinced Auburn has a great offense, and if they get pressure on Nix, the Bulldogs have the potential to keep Auburn’s offense frustrated all night. The bad news is that Georgia’s offense still has a lot of questions. Freshman D’Wan Mathis got the start at quarterback last week but struggled significantly by completing just 8 of 17 passes for 55 yards with an interception. Junior Stetson Bennett came off the bench to save the offense by completing 20 of 29 passing for 211 yards with two touchdowns.

Despite playing the savior role last week, Head Coach Kirby Smart has not announced Bennett as the starter for this week’s game against Auburn. Smart stated they would evaluate the quarterback position throughout the week. Therefore no matter who gets the nod, Georgia will have them on a short leash. More importantly, the Bulldogs do not appear very sharp at the skill positions. Running back, Zamir White has potential, but he is not quite there yet. WR George Pickens is insanely talented, but receivers are only as good as the quarterbacks throwing to them. Therefore, I believe the defenses are going to have the upper hand in this game throughout the entire match.

Bet the Auburn/Georgia under 43

While I like Georgia’s chances this week, I still believe the defense will be the theme of the night. The Bulldogs have a tremendously talented defense that has the potential to shut Auburn down. Likewise, Auburn’s defense is not exactly a push-over, and with Georgia’s offensive concerns, it would not be surprising to see the Bulldogs struggle at times as well. There is a reason the total for this game is listed at just 43 points. That is because this is an extremely tough match-up for both offenses.

If you look at the trends in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, the Bulldogs have won eight out of the last ten meetings and covered the spread in eight of those ten meetings. However, the “under” has also hit in eight of the previous ten meetings as well. The Bulldogs defense has produced an “under” hitting machine in recent years under Coach Smart. In fact, Georgia has hit the “under” in 9 of their last ten games outright. Meanwhile, Auburn has shown some tendencies towards the “under” by going below the total in 5 of their last seven games. Therefore if you combine the match-ups in this game with the trends, we have a clear path towards the “under” yet again.

Jay’s Pick vs. the Betting Line: Under 43. Note: Did you know you can bet on college football games (pro too) live in progress? The BEST live wagering platform on the web is hands down Bovada Sportsbook! You get a 50% cash bonus and rebates on ALL your action as well!