Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Pick ATS
Cincinnati Bearcats (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
When: Saturday, September 3, 3:30 p.m.
Where: DW Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark.
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: CIN +6/ARK -6 (Make Cinci a +26 underdog by placing them into a massive 20 point college football teaser found only at Wagerweb!)
Total: O/U 52
Outlook
There’s a reason that Cincinnati is getting points again despite making the playoff a year ago: the Bearcats’ best players from that season are gone, and the replacements are going to take time to get close to that level. Cincinnati lost stars Desmond Ridder and Sauce Gardner to the NFL, and what’s left is a team that’s good but not great, similar to what Central Florida became two years after it won the national championship. And that leaves the Bearcats in a tight spot against Arkansas, as they’ve got a tough opponent while still having to figure out what kind of team they really are.
The Razorbacks might not have a lot of experience available on defense, but when you return a player like KJ Jefferson, it might not matter. Arkansas’ offense should be doing a lot of the lifting in this game, given that the defense is likely to be nowhere near what it was a season ago when it held seven opponents to under 20 points. With the Razorbacks bringing back the bulk of a powerful offensive line, Jefferson could find himself with even more time to build on the excellent decision-making he showed a season ago.
How the Public is Betting the Cincinnati/Arkansas Game
The public is leaning toward Arkansas, but the money is coming in on Cincinnati. Even though 67% of tickets are on the Razorbacks, the spread has fallen from Arkansas -7 to -6. The total has ticked down from 54 to 52.
Injury Concerns
Cincinnati:
Cincinnati reports no injuries.
Arkansas:
Quarterback Kade Renfro (knee) is questionable. Wide receiver Jadon Haselwood (undisclosed) is probable. Running back Dominique Johnson (knee) is out.
When Cincinnati Has the Ball
Good luck figuring out who Luke Fickell plans to put in at quarterback because he’s not saying a word about whether Evan Prater or Ben Bryant will have the job when the Bearcats take the field. If it’s Bryant, he’s going to find himself in a much better position than he was when he was quarterbacking Eastern Michigan, as Cincinnati can actually run the football. Bryant had to do far too much when he led the Eagles’ offense because Eastern could barely scratch out 3.4 yards per carry, which led him to throw far more often than he should have.
Whoever is the quarterback will have to build consistency quick with a new host of receivers, with Tyler Scott the new leading receiver after Alec Pierce used up his eligibility. The strength of this team will be its offensive line in the early going, as all five starters return from a season ago. With the Razorbacks bringing back just two members of the front seven, look for Cincinnati to pound the rock as much as possible to try to keep Jefferson on the sidelines.
When Arkansas Has the Ball
Arkansas’ home numbers were a bit skewed by the fact that they had to go to Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi last season, but the fact remains that the Razorbacks outscored opponents 37-19 when playing at home in 2021. Only Auburn managed to hold Arkansas to less than 30 points in a game in the Natural State, and a large part of that was because Jefferson just didn’t make mistakes with the football.
Last year, Arkansas finished plus-6 in turnovers because Jefferson only threw four interceptions on the season, and the rest of the Razorbacks didn’t beat themselves. However, Arkansas needs to have someone else step up alongside Jefferson, who was also the team’s leading rusher a season ago. Raheim Sanders looks like a solid option based off his work a year ago, and the Razorbacks return 80% of an offensive line that allowed the Hogs to average five yards per carry.
Sam Pittman likes to establish the run, and Jefferson isn’t going to hesitate to tuck it and go, which means that Cincinnati’s linebackers will have to be on their toes to get anything out of this game. If Jefferson finds space, it’s difficult to see the Bearcats sticking with the Razorbacks.
Betting Trends
This trend might be a little meaningless given that the Razorbacks have been constantly underestimated until last year, but Pittman has yet to lose a non-conference game at Arkansas. He went 5-0 last season outside SEC play, beating the likes of Texas and Penn State. Pittman is also 15-7-1 ATS in Fayetteville, but that again comes with a caveat: he’s only been favored seven times in his two years as the man in charge, and he’s 4-3 ATS when giving points.
When Cincinnati goes on the road, the defense tends to come with them. In their past six games away from southwestern Ohio, the Bearcats have played to the under five times. That doesn’t even count their 27-6 loss to Alabama in the playoff last season, as the Bearcats held the Crimson Tide to their third-lowest total of the season. Keep in mind, though, that most of the players who slowed down Alabama in December are now collecting paychecks rather than playing on Saturdays.
Weather Report
This isn’t going to be an ideal day for football, as temperatures will rise into the mid-80s with humidity playing a role in the proceedings. Wind won’t be an issue, as it will only blow at five miles per hour to the northeast.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread
This is going to be a battle of the offensive lines; as Cincinnati and Arkansas both should be able to keep the ball moving throughout the contest. The Bearcats will probably have to pass the ball in order to win, and I don’t like their chances of doing that with Desmond Ridder now in the NFL. A year ago, this would have been Cincinnati’s to lose, but this time around, Arkansas should overpower them. I’ll take the Razorbacks. Note: We’ve arranged a SPECIAL unadvertised 125% bonus up to $400 in FREE bets when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at GTBets Sportsbook! They also give you a free half point everytime you bet your favorite NFL, college football, NBA and college basketball team!
