Most recreational college football bettors will head out to their local newsstand and pick up their favorite football yearly magazines and get updated on the who has lost who and glance over each NCAA’s team’s preview for the upcoming. However, you have to do a lot more research than that if you want to stay ahead of the odds maker in the early part of the football betting season.
Here’s some handicapping research that we use to help us pinpoint some very favorable wagering situations in first few weeks of the college football season.
If you have purchased one of the college publications then you’ll most likely already have these numbers available at your fingertips. If not, check back on Predictem.com in late summer for our returning player numbers for all 117 NCAA teams. Once you have those stats in hand, you’ll need to research each team’s quality of returning players. Don’t just look at the skill positions. Also, note the offensive and defensive linemen lost or returning and make notes of how many of the first time starters have seen some decent game action.
If you are not super familiar with a particular team’s past season’s injury situation we suggest that you spend some time getting a refresher. Most NCCA football team sites will have box score stats for each game. It will take a bit of time to go over each game, but it is definitely worth your while. Make notes for teams that had a relatively injury free season as well as those that had an excessive amount of injuries.
Compare last season’s schedule against this year’s schedule for each team. Note if last year they faced a lot of the dregs of the NCAA or if they had an inordinate amount of games against top ranked competition. Also take a close look at last year’s games. Was there any scheduling factors that could have had an impact on the game? For example, were they playing 3 straight games on the road? Was their opponent playing there third in a row on the road or were they in a sandwich game situation?
Know each team’s coaching situation. Do they have a new head coach, offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator? Look for the team’s that have a new coach coming in that has been quite successful in the past as well as the teams that have lost such. Also, check out a few of the local newspaper sites to see if a coach is on the “hot seat” going into the new season. We’ve used this situation in the past to fade the team if they record back to back losses in the early weeks.
Many of you won’t have the time or patience to go this deep into researching for the upcoming football season. However, the handicappers that do will be the ones that have a much higher chance of catching the sportsbook with some very soft lines and padding their bankrolls in the early season.