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College Football Pick: LSU at Arkansas

by | Last updated Nov 7, 2018 | cfb

No. 9 LSU Tigers (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-7 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday November 10th, 2018. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Razorback Stadium Fayetteville, A.R.

Point Spread:LSU -14/ARK +14
Over/Under Total: 47.5

The LSU Tigers could not deliver in their heavyweight bout against Alabama last week. The Tigers fell in a 29-0 shutout to the nation’s top-ranked team ending their hopes of a potential championship run. Now LSU looks to make the most of their remaining 2018 campaign when they go on the road for a showdown with a struggling Arkansas team in Fayetteville. Perhaps this is a letdown situation for an LSU team coming off a big loss in a situation that seems meaningless, but then again Arkansas has been pretty awful this year especially in SEC competition.

Arkansas trends to know

The Razorbacks have fallen to the pits of the SEC and are undoubtedly the worst team in the conference. The title for the worst team in the SEC was given with their loss to Ole Miss a few weeks ago and then solidified with last week’s 45-31 loss to Vanderbilt. The Razorbacks remain winless in conference play in 2018 and have lost 13 of their last 14 games against SEC opponents going back to 2016. The Razorbacks are also just 8-14-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall. Of course, the defense has been one of the main storylines to Arkansas’ demise. In Arkansas’ last 13 games against SEC opponents, the Razorbacks are relinquishing 41.69 points per game. Needless to say, you are not going to win in any conference with numbers like that especially the SEC that has a notorious reputation for producing great defenses.

Reasons to fade LSU

While those trends for Arkansas are alarming, there are reasons to consider backing the Razorbacks and the 14 points bettors are getting this week. For starters, again this is the definition of a letdown situation for the Tigers on the heels of last week’s loss. Then the match-up for Arkansas is not that daunting. The Razorbacks biggest problem this season has been trying to score enough points to supplement their pitiful defense. The good news for concern is that LSU is not a high scoring offense. The Tigers remain a rushing-oriented offense behind Nick Brossette who has rushed for 700 yards with 10 touchdowns. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is completing just 53% passing like most of the LSU quarterbacks have for the last decade.

For the Razorbacks to contend, they merely have to give a strong defensive effort and find a way to manufacture points. Arkansas’s defense does defend the run better than they do against the pass. Likewise, the Razorbacks offense has produced points this year to give some hope in this argument. In fact, Arkansas averages 27 points per game which is equivalent to LSU’s output. Running back Rakeem Boyd is a good runner that the offense will rely on heavily this week and the offense will need a great effort from quarterback Ty Storey who has been turnover prone. The main concern I have for Arkansas’s offense is on the offensive line where they have been beaten up with injuries and will have a difficult match-up against a talented LSU front 7.

LSU vs. Arkansas betting trends

Despite the long trend of Arkansas losing in SEC games that extends back to 2016, they have been pretty solid against the spread. The Razorbacks have covered 4 of their last 5 games overall and 4 of their last 5 games at home. LSU has also been solid for bettors with an 11-5 mark ATS in their last 16 games and a 4-2 ATS mark in their last 6 road games. However, Arkansas holds the head to head advantage at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings with LSU.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a tough game to predict because of the degrees of variance. However, my gut is telling me that LSU will have a letdown performance in this circumstantial situations. Therefore consider a small play on the Razorbacks +14. Editor’s Note: Join in the discussion at our posting forum and give out your plays or tail some of our winning cappers’ picks.

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