CFB Underdog of the Week Picks

This Week’s College Football Underdog Bets

Throughout the college football season, we identify the top underdog against the spread. This isn’t about chasing popular picks—it’s about uncovering those matchups where the odds-makers might be off. We’ll have our picks available throughout the week, with the final updates or any additional plays posted by Friday.

Every pick is backed by a clear and concise analysis, focusing on the key factors that give this underdog the edge. No guesswork, just sharp insights rooted in data. Stick to the facts, avoid the noise, and trust the rationale behind each selection.

2025 Record 5-8-0 -3.80 Units

Week 14

Arkansas State +1.5 at Appalachian State (Underdog of the Week)

Neither team is built to intimidate, but Arkansas State owns the steadier profile and has been the better bet all season. The Red Wolves sit 7–4 ATS and have consistently punched above their weight as underdogs, while App State has just one win in its last five — and that required a +3 turnover margin bailout. The Mountaineers enter this one missing a starter at quarterback, left tackle, tight end, and key rotation pieces, thinning a defense already giving up 6.1 yards per play. Arkansas State brings a stronger passing game, cleaner efficiency metrics, and a healthier roster. They don’t need the upset, just the cover — and this is their kind of fight.

Week 13

Arkansas Razorbacks +8.5 at Texas (Lost)

Texas is the ranked team, the home team, and the name-brand program, but they’re not the trustworthy favorite the market keeps insisting they are. The Longhorns are 2-7-1 ATS with just one SEC win by more than this number — and that came in a turnover-fueled blowout that’s unlikely to repeat. Arkansas might be 2-8, but they’ve been inside the number all season with five losses by a field goal or less and only one true blowout. Dual-threat QB Taylen Green keeps them competitive, and Texas’ defense isn’t fully healthy with Anthony Hill Jr. sidelined. The Razorbacks fight for 60 minutes — plenty of room to stay inside +8.5.

Week 12

Iowa +6.5 vs USC (Won 21-26)

This number bakes in USC’s Coliseum fireworks but only partially respects what Iowa does best: turn games into 60-minute field-position arguments. The Hawkeyes’ front, allowing just 3.21 yards per rush, is a real problem for a Trojans offense that quietly leans on a 5.81 YPC ground game to set up those vertical shots. Add in Iowa’s recent 6-1 ATS form and a defense giving up 13.67 PPG, and +6.5 starts to look rich, especially with the market refusing to push to 7. They don’t need the upset, just a cover — and this is their kind of fight.

Week 11

Wake Forest +6.5 at Virginia (Won)

Virginia’s good, no doubt — but laying nearly a touchdown feels a little heavy. Last week’s cover got a gift-wrapped pick-six in the final minute, and that matters when you’re priced over a field goal. Wake’s been scrappy on the road and they’ve got a real “spike” factor with Purdie/Ashford — not every drive hums, but they can hit pockets and flip a quarter. With UVA a bit dinged up up front and a total sitting in the mid-40s, this shapes like a one-score grind more often than not. I’m happy to grab the 6.5 and let endgame weirdness work for us.

Week 10

Temple +5 vs East Carolina (Lost)

Books are overvaluing East Carolina’s offense in a setting built to neutralize it. With 17 MPH winds expected, the Pirates’ pass-heavy attack (293.6 YPG, 14th nationally) loses its bite against a Temple defense ranked 25th against the pass. The Owls have quietly gone 6-2 ATS this season and 7-3 in their last 10, showing they consistently outperform market expectations. ECU’s just 1-2 straight up on the road and relies on rhythm and tempo that disappear in gusty conditions. Temple’s defensive structure and home field should keep this one tight. They don’t need the upset, just a cover — and this is their kind of fight.

CFB Underdog of the Week

Buffalo +1.5 over Bowling Green

This one’s not pretty, but that’s exactly the point. The Bulls bring the steadier quarterback play and the far better pass defense into a matchup where Bowling Green’s down to QB4. Buffalo’s defensive front holds up against the run (3.7 YPC allowed), and their receivers should have a field day against a Falcons secondary giving up 9.4 yards per pass. Add in better road form, and you’ve got value on the short dog. The MAC doesn’t hand out style points — it rewards whoever makes fewer mistakes. That’s Buffalo this week.

Week 9

Ball State +6.0 vs Northern Illinois (Lost 7-21)

This number’s inflated. Ball State has quietly become one of the best ATS teams in the MAC at 5-2, while Northern Illinois sits at 1-6 straight up and ATS. The Huskies haven’t covered in five of their last six, and laying nearly a touchdown with that profile is asking for trouble. Ball State’s ground game (143.6 ypg) matches up well against NIU’s leaky front allowing 181.4 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals are healthier, more disciplined, and have been undervalued all season. They don’t need the upset — just a fight. And that’s exactly their style.

Week 8

Washington +4.5 vs Michigan (Underdog of the Week)

Michigan’s rating in the market hasn’t adjusted to their flaws. Bryce Underwood is steady, but this offense leans on RB Justice Haynes — and his questionable status looms large. Without a full-strength Haynes, Michigan’s ground game (4.1 yards per carry in league play) loses its punch. Washington’s defense is built to handle it, ranking top-20 nationally in rushing success rate allowed and yards per play. On the other side, QB D. Williams Jr. and the Huskies’ balanced attack can stretch a Michigan secondary that’s been hit for explosive plays in key spots. They don’t need the upset, just a cover — and this is their kind of fight.

Week 7

Purdue +8 at Minnesota (Won)

This move off -10 tells you plenty. Sharps jumped early on Purdue, driving the line down through a key number to +8 — clear respect for a battle-tested underdog. Purdue’s been through a gauntlet of USC, Notre Dame, and Illinois and kept it semi-competitive each time, moving the ball effectively through the air. Minnesota’s been the opposite story — win column looks fine, but the competition hasn’t. They’ve yet to cover as a home favorite and just escaped Rutgers. The Gophers are priced like contenders, not the grind-it-out team they really are. Purdue has earned this market respect. They don’t need the upset, just the fight.

Week 6

Virginia +6.5 vs Louisville (Won)

Virginia’s lone setback was a narrow 31-35 road loss at NC State, and they’ve responded with three straight ATS wins behind one of the ACC’s most efficient attacks — 539.6 yards per game and 45.6 ppg with a balanced rush/pass split. Louisville’s spotless record hides cracks: just 1-3 ATS and outgained by Pitt last week before a late surge. The line asks the Cardinals to cover nearly a touchdown against a team that can travel, sustain drives, and score. They don’t need the upset, just a cover — and this is their kind of fight.

Week 5

Kentucky +5.5 at South Carolina (Lost)

South Carolina opened -6.5, but sharp money quickly grabbed Kentucky and pulled it down to +5.5. That’s a strong signal in what looks like a classic contrarian spot. The Wildcats’ strength is a physical ground game (214.7 rushing YPG, 5.1 YPC) that lines up perfectly against a Gamecocks defense gashed for 146 yards by Vandy and 285 by Missouri. Freshman QB Cutter Boley adds a downfield element, and off a bye, Stoops’ squad is rested and prepared. South Carolina’s offense has stalled, ranking last in the SEC in total yards and surrendering 12 sacks already. Williams-Brice is tough, but Kentucky has covered 8 of the last 12 in this series. Catching more than a field goal with the better rushing attack is live dog value.

Week 4

Miami (OH) +1.5 vs UNLV (Lost 38-41)

This isn’t your typical “keep it close” dog — at +1.5 the RedHawks essentially need the outright win. The angle is situational: Miami gets its home opener after two road losses, while UNLV travels East for a noon kickoff (9 AM body clock). The Rebels have the shiny record, but their schedule strength is weak, and sharper money has already nudged this down from -2.5. Miami’s defense looked competent holding Wisconsin to 17, and desperation at home is a real motivator. With the line this short, you’re betting Miami to win, and that urgency plus the spot makes them live.

Week 3

Troy +4.5 vs Memphis (Lost 7-28)

Memphis has rolled up 41.5 PPG at home, but this is their first real road test and the number feels inflated. Troy’s defense is tough at Veterans Memorial, holding opponents to 5.3 yards/play, and their home crowd gives them a legit edge. The Tigers’ offense is efficient, but penalties and road jitters could slow them down against a scrappy Trojans squad that has revenge from last year’s blowout. Getting more than a field goal with Troy at home is solid value — they don’t need to win outright, just keep it close, and that’s their wheelhouse in Sun Belt vs AAC spots.

Week 2

Kentucky +8.5 (Won 23-30)
Ole Miss dropped 63 in the opener, but that was Georgia Southern. SEC road game is a different ask. The Rebels have only won one of the last three in Lexington by more than a touchdown. Kentucky has covered three straight in the series and gets this at home, where they’re usually scrappy. Mississippi’s offense is explosive, but laying 8.5 on the road in league play is a tall order. Take the points.

Week 1

Hawaii +17 (Lost 6-40)
Alejado’s been mistake-free (8 TD, 0 INT) and just engineered the Stanford upset on one good ankle. Arizona’s breaking in 61 new faces under a coach already on thin ice, and last year’s 4-8 squad dropped 7 of 8 down the stretch. Too much chaos to be laying 17. Take the points with Hawaii.

Week 15

Penn State +3.5. Penn State’s elite defense (16.2 PPG, 7th in total yards allowed) is built to slow Oregon’s explosive offense, especially through the air, where the Nittany Lions rank 8th nationally in passing yards allowed. On offense, Penn State’s physical run game (194.7 YPG) can control the clock, keeping Oregon’s offense off the field. QB Drew Allar’s efficient play (71.7% completion, 8:1 TD/INT ratio) gives Penn State a steady hand to capitalize on Oregon’s pass defense, which isn’t invincible (326 yards to Ohio State). Combine that with a neutral field, and the Nittany Lions are in a great spot to cover.

Week 14

Rice Owls +5 (Won outright 35-28). South Florida’s explosive rushing attack (198.5 YPG, 21st nationally) faces its toughest road test yet against a Rice defense that has been quietly dominant at home since their opening loss to Sam Houston State. The Owls haven’t allowed any opponent over 140 rushing yards in their last four home games, going 3-1 in that stretch. Their near-miss against Charlotte illustrates their capability – they outgained the 49ers 463-304 and only lost by a point on a missed 40-yard field goal. While USF has put up impressive numbers lately (55+ points in consecutive games), those came against softer defenses than what they’ll face in Houston. Rice’s ability to control rushing attacks at home and generate significant yardage makes the points valuable.
Rich Crew’s Pick: Rice +5 — The Owls’ stout run defense at Rice Stadium (no team over 140 yards rushing in last four home games) and proven ability to outgain quality opponents suggests the market is undervaluing their home field advantage against USF’s somewhat one-dimensional attack.

Week 13

Indiana Hoosiers +10.5. Ohio State’s offensive line is reeling, with LT Josh Simmons out since the Oregon game and starting center Seth McLaughlin now lost for the season. The Buckeyes managed just 21 points against Nebraska and 20 at Penn State, and while their offense looked better in recent games, it came against weaker defenses like Purdue’s. Indiana enters this game undefeated and brings a top-10 defense in key metrics like yards per play and rush defense. While their performance last week wasn’t sharp, it’s understandable for a young team that may have been distracted with Ohio State looming. The double-digit points and OSU’s offensive line woes make Indiana the value play.

Rich Crew’s Pick: Indiana +10.5 — The Buckeyes’ offensive struggles and Indiana’s disciplined defense set up the underdog to keep this one within the number.

Week 11

Texas Tech +4.5 (Lost 27-41). Texas Tech has taken a couple of tough losses this season, but those were games where they got dominated on the ground – Baylor racked up 255 rushing yards, and Washington State rolled for 301. Colorado doesn’t pose the same threat in that department, ranking near the bottom in rushing yards per game (130th) and yards per carry (131st). The Red Raiders have also avoided a negative turnover ratio in seven of their nine games, with their only turnover issues arising in those two blowout losses. With 4.5 points on the table, Texas Tech looks primed to keep this one tight and could potentially pull the upset.

Week 10 Picks

Syracuse +3.5 (Won 38-31). Syracuse looks primed to keep this one close, especially if they can clean up from last week’s turnover-riddled performance against Pitt. The Orange gave away five turnovers in that loss, but a return to their usual ball security could turn things around against Virginia Tech, who’s struggled to force mistakes consistently. Syracuse’s defense held Pitt to just 217 total yards, showing strong resilience that matches up well against a Hokies offense averaging only 181.5 passing yards per game.

Virginia Tech’s defense has been porous against the pass, ranking 95th in opponent completion percentage and 101st in QB rating allowed. Syracuse’s offense has a chance to exploit this, especially if they avoid turnovers and set an early rhythm. With Syracuse catching +3.5 and Virginia Tech showing inconsistency in close matchups, this line offers solid value. Syracuse’s stout defense and VT’s softer pass D provide a setup where the Orange can cover—or even pull an upset.

Week 9 Picks

Buffalo Bulls +6.5 (Loss 16-47). The loss to Miami (OH) for Ohio wasn’t a shock, as the books were already leaning toward the RedHawks, setting them at -3.5 to tempt Ohio bettors. But the Bobcats’ struggles on the ground were telling—they managed only 110 rushing yards on 33 carries, their lowest output of the season. The Bulls’ run defense has shown some gaps, allowing 165 yards to NIU, 257 to UConn, and 209 to WMU in recent weeks, yet they catch a break here with Ohio losing their lead back, Anthony Tyus III, for the season. While they still have Parker Navarro (427 yards, 6.2 YPC), Ohio’s ground game won’t have its usual two-pronged attack.

Buffalo’s offense has been building momentum, putting up a season-high 41 points against WMU following a 30-point outing versus Toledo. With only three returning offensive starters, the Bulls’ early struggles are no surprise, but they’re starting to click at the right time. Plus, they’ve already shown they can pull off a road win, beating NIU earlier in the season. Getting 6.5 points here in what could be a close game or even an upset makes Buffalo a solid play.

Rich Crew’s Pick: Take Buffalo +6.5. With Ohio missing Tyus III and Buffalo’s offense finding its rhythm, the Bulls have a shot to keep this one tight, if not outright steal it.

Week 8 Picks

Auburn +4 (Pushed 21-17). Missouri’s 5-1 record is deceptive, with most of their wins coming against weak teams. Auburn, despite their 2-4 record, has shown flashes on defense, holding opponents to some of their lowest outputs this season. Missouri’s QB Brady Cook has struggled under pressure in SEC matchups, with the team allowing nine sacks in two games. Auburn’s defense could exploit that. Auburn’s biggest issue has been turnovers, but if they clean that up, this game will be much closer than expected. Missouri may also be missing key RB Nate Noel (check status), making their offense one-dimensional. Auburn’s defense and a solid run game give them the edge to cover the spread and possibly win outright.

Week 7 Picks

Rice +4 (Won outright 29-27). UTSA has struggled mightily on the road this season, losing all away games by ten or more points, albeit against tough comp. However, their two wins came against weak opposition in FCS Houston Christian and winless Kennesaw State, raising doubts about their ability to cover as a road favorite. On the other hand, Rice may not have a glowing record, but they are at home, and UTSA’s road woes present a solid opportunity for the Owls to cover or even win outright. Given that UTSA has failed to cover in all FBS matchups this year, this is a spot where Rice can capitalize on home-field advantage.

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