Colorado Buffalos (1-6 SU, 1-5 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (7-0 SU, 3-3 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date and Time: October 27, 2012, 3:00PM EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV: PAC 12
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Col +45.5/ORE -45.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
This Saturday at 3:00PM EST, the Buffalos of Colorado will be traveling to Eugene to take on the number 4 ranked Oregon Ducks. These two football programs are headed in completely opposite directions of one another. As stated, Oregon comes in ranked 4th in BCS while Colorado sits at an overall record of just 1-6. These two teams have only met twice since the 2002 season and both contests ended with Oregon being the victor. The most recent meeting took place just last October in Colorado and we saw Oregon put a massive 45-2 “whooping” on the Buffalos. As each week passes, it is becoming more and more evident as to which teams are the true contenders and there is no doubt that the Ducks have their sights on a BCS title game berth come January. It looks like Oregon is destined to run the table but throughout the history of college football, upsets can come from the most unexpected team at the most unexpected time. Is there something we don’t know about this matchup? Can Colorado pull off the biggest shocker of the 2012 season? Let us take a more in depth look at this Pac 12 contest.
I don’t know what Oregon has more of, uniform combinations, or points scored per game. Ok, well it’s the uniform combinations, but these boys can still flat out put up points also. Not only can Oregon score, but with the studs running the ball, Barner and Thomas, they score QUICK! Just ask Arizona State. Currently, the Ducks are averaging an insane 317 yards per game rushing as a team along with over 50 points per contest. It’s a pretty well known fact throughout the nation that our feathered friends can score the football, but what many do not realize is that they are only giving up right at 20 points per game defensively and coming into this week actually rank in the top 30 (28th) in that statistic. There’s really not much you can say negatively about this year’s Oregon team; they are destroying people. Yes, Oregon ran up the score on some of the “cupcakes” of the FBS, but they have already played two top 25 opponents and won those games by scores of 49-0 over Arizona, and 52-21 versus Washington. It appears that Oregon has the gloves off and is accepting any challengers to step in the ring with them. The Ducks are LOADED!
Now we move on to Colorado. One may have to search long and hard to find something good to say about this team, but this is what makes these guys so dangerous. They have nothing to lose. Colorado will be traveling into Autzen Stadium playing with house money and they only have one thing on their mind, upset. When you are 1-6 on a season, you have to find any motivating factor you can to get your players ready for a battle. Have you ever played golf and shot a terrible 110 but had that one shot that you talked about for weeks after? Well, this is Colorado’s chance to make that shot. One day. One Game. One Shot. Colorado comes in ranked outside the top 100 in most major offensive and defensive categories but they do however average over 200 yards per game passing, so they will force the Ducks to have to respect that aspect of their game. Not only will Colorado be focused and determined to knock off one of the nation’s top teams, but let’s not forget that Oregon could possibly be looking ahead to that big USC game which is just a week away. If the Ducks aren’t ready, Ralphie and the rest of the Buffalos could make this a very painful weekend. If you think about it, Oregon is due for a bad week, and Colorado is due to finally play a good game.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Now, without further ado, my official pick. The Ducks are giving up 45.5 points to Colorado. Typically I run far away from these types of point spreads, but something really has caught my eye here. Oregon has covered the spread 24 of the last 32 games versus a team with a losing record while Colorado has gone 7-21 against the spread as the visiting team. From a team statistical standpoint, Oregon ranks 2nd in the nation in points scored per game, Colorado is ranked 128th in the nation in scoring defense. Oregon has the 28th best scoring defense in the country, Colorado sits at 113th in points scored. This is just a mismatch in every sense of the term. Even in some of your classic mismatches, there is something or some area that the underdog can find success against the favorite. Guys, it’s just not here. I think Oregon covers this 45.5 by the half and moves on to make it even worse. As much as I would love to see a David and Goliath conclusion, I have a feeling it may be pretty sad for the Buffalos. Oregon win this game, and wins it HUGE. I’m betting the U of O at -45.5
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