Expert College Football Total Picks of the Week

This Week’s College Football Total Bets

Each week during the college football season, we target the sharpest totals on the board—those over/unders where the numbers tell a different story than the public perception. We’re not just looking for a high or low score; we’re hunting for value where the market might be off. Our picks are available throughout the week, with any final updates or new plays posted by Friday.

Every total pick comes with a straightforward breakdown, highlighting the key factors driving the play. This isn’t about guessing—it’s about data-driven analysis that cuts through the noise. Trust the numbers, trust the process, and let the results speak for themselves. Lastly (and very beneficial), learn how to bet on over/under plays at -105 odds instead of the -110 your bookie is sapping you with! Be smart! Save money by learning about reduced juice college football betting!

2025 Record: 7-4 +2.60 Units

Week 14

Toledo / Central Michigan Under 45.5 (Total of the Week)

Both defenses shape the scoring rhythm here. Toledo’s stop unit ranks among the MAC’s best in drive success rate and explosive-play prevention, while Central Michigan slows games down with one of the lowest pass rates in the conference. That combination pulls tempo downward — fewer plays, fewer possessions, and long fields to navigate. CMU’s red-zone TD rate is shaky, and Toledo’s defense tightens inside the 20, pushing expected points toward 3s instead of 7s. With two ball-control offenses and efficiency numbers pointing to suppressed scoring, this total is inflated relative to the pace. Expect a slower grind than the line implies.

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Week 13

USC/Oregon Under 59.5 (Lost 42-29)

On paper, this looks like one of those classic USC track meets — but the matchup doesn’t actually support that kind of script. Oregon’s defense has been strangling opponents week after week, holding teams to single-digit scoring stretches and forcing everyone to play their style. USC can move the ball, no question, but doing it in Eugene against the No. 1 pass defense with a banged-up backfield is a very different ask. And Oregon’s own injuries at the skill spots usually mean the Ducks slow things down and lean on efficiency instead of tempo. Put all that together, and 59.5 feels like a number built off reputation, not reality. This one profiles as more controlled, more methodical, and well short of a shootout.

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Week 12

Oklahoma vs Alabama Under 46 (Won 23-21)

This number feels a tick high for a game built on defense, field position, and red-zone stubbornness. Oklahoma’s profile is still that of an Under team at the core – allowing just 14.1 PPG with a run defense that can stone a Bama ground game stuck around 3.6 YPC, while their own offense is more caretaker than playmaker. Alabama wins with efficiency, not tempo: Ty Simpson protects the ball, the Tide squeeze extra possessions out of their +1-ish turnover edge, and their defense forces more field goals than touchdowns. Strip away the logos and the recent Sooner score spikes and you land in that 24–17, 23–20 neighborhood far more often than a shootout, which makes Under 46 the way to go.

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Week 11

Washington/Wisconsin Under 45.0 (Won 13-10)

Market says “grind.” Washington wins with efficiency, not pace: 6.8 YPP, 72.6% completions, 9.5 YPA — but just 28.8 passes (No. 96) and 35.5 rushes (No. 69). That profile bleeds clock. Wisconsin’s defense is sturdy where it matters (110.8 rush yds allowed, No. 25), forcing methodical series and field goals. The Huskies’ recent scoring texture backs it: Unders versus Michigan, Maryland, and Ohio State when facing competent defenses. On the other side, Wisconsin’s injury stack (QB questionable, RB/WR out, more “Q” tags) points to a pared-down script and fewer explosives. With Washington laying -11 on the road, expect possession caps, red-zone stalls, and more three-pointers than touchdowns. Under 445is the right side of the math.

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Week 10

Mississippi State/Arkansas Over 66.5 (Won)

This number looks steep until you realize both defenses rank in the bottom tier nationally — Arkansas 124th in total defense, Mississippi State 61st — while each offense can light it up. Arkansas averages top-five production in yardage and has gone over the total in six of eight games (75%). Mississippi State just dropped 38 on Texas and 34 on Tennessee and now faces its softest stop unit yet. Both quarterbacks are efficient, both defenses leak explosives, and desperation for bowl eligibility ensures aggressive play-calling. The market’s hanging a high total for a reason — expect tempo, chunk plays, and points stacking fast. Over is the right side of chaos.

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Week 9

Toledo/Washington State Under 45.5 (Won )

Both teams trend toward methodical football, and the number here doesn’t match the efficiency data. Toledo ranks top-20 nationally in opponent yards per point, while Washington State’s offense averages fewer than 5.0 yards per play in its last four. The Cougars’ protection issues (3.4 sacks allowed per game) and forecasted wind make vertical shots unlikely. Expect Toledo to grind clock behind its 5.0-yard rush game, forcing long possessions and limited snaps. With both defenses efficient in red-zone suppression and pace projected near 125 combined plays, this total sits a few points too high. Expect a slower grind than the number implies.

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Week 7

BYU/Arizona Over 47.5 (Won)

Both teams check the boxes for an Over setup — efficient drives, quarterback accuracy, and weakened secondaries. BYU’s averaging 6.9 yards per play and scoring a point every 12.8 yards gained, a top-25 rate nationally. Arizona’s pass defense metrics look elite on paper, but they’ve yet to face a balanced attack like BYU’s. The Cougars’ defense, meanwhile, is missing key linebackers and a corner, which has already pushed their opponents’ red zone TD rate north of 70%. Add in two efficient quarterbacks and clean weather in Tucson, and this total looks light by a field goal.

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Week 6

Texas/Florida Under 42.5 (Lost 29-21)

This one sets up like a slugfest. Texas leans on an elite defense that shuts down red zone chances, and Florida hasn’t shown much punch against even average opponents. Add in a few key injuries, and neither side looks built to stretch the field. Tempo is slow, drives stall, and big plays are rare. Oddsmakers are hanging a number that suggests more scoring than either offense has in them right now. This feels like a game that grinds in the trenches and struggles to sniff the 40s.

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Week 5

Kentucky at South Carolina – Under 47.5 (Lost)

This series has been an Under machine — cashing in 9 of the last 10 meetings and five straight at Williams-Brice. The setup looks familiar: Kentucky leans on a ground game that chews clock (214.7 YPG rushing) and keeps the tempo slow, while South Carolina’s offense has struggled badly, ranking last in the SEC in total yards and giving up 12 sacks in four games. Both defenses are stronger than they get credit for, with Kentucky forcing pressure without blitzing and South Carolina more capable when not gassed by quick-change spots. Even if Kentucky controls, its red zone efficiency sits at just 42.8%, meaning more drives end in 3 instead of 7. Everything here points to a grinder that stays in the low 40s at most, keeping the Under live throughout.

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Week 4

Toledo vs Western Michigan Under 49.5 (Won 14-13)

The market is pricing Toledo’s 40+ PPG offense like it will run wild, but Western Michigan’s defense has been quietly better than its 0-3 record suggests. The Broncos held Michigan State to 23 and limited North Texas to 27 in regulation, showing they can slow down higher-powered attacks. WMU’s offense is the real issue at just 12 PPG, and that drag creates fewer possessions overall. Toledo will get theirs on the ground, but with the Broncos forcing long drives and struggling to score themselves, this total looks too high. The Under has cashed in 6 of WMU’s last 7, and this sets up as another grinder in Kalamazoo.

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Week 3

EMU/Kentucky Under 48.5 (Crushed 48-23)

Eastern Michigan’s offense looks serviceable on paper (25 PPG, 351 YPG), but Kroger Field is a different animal. Kentucky’s defense is a major step up from what the Eagles have seen, and they’re unlikely to allow cheap points once the game is out of reach. With Boley getting his first start under center for UK, expect the Wildcats to lean on their defense and ground game rather than chase style points. EMU doesn’t have the firepower to crack this defense, making the Under the cleaner angle in Lexington.

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Week 2

WVU/Ohio Under 58.5 (won 17-10)

WVU hung 625 yards and 45 points on Robert Morris, but that box score inflated expectations. Ohio’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s a step up and should keep this from becoming a track meet. Bobcats’ D didn’t embarrass themselves on the road against Rutgers. WVU’s strength is a balanced run game (393 yards in the opener) that eats clock, and Ohio doesn’t have the firepower to push tempo. Mountaineers likely grind out a covering win, but the cleaner edge is the Under.

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Week 1

Passing this week. We’ll be back strong next week once we see the teams get a game under their belts.

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Week 15

Ohio/Miami (OH) Under 44. These two teams met earlier this season, with Miami (OH) winning 30-20, but the score paints a misleading picture. Ohio’s two touchdowns came in the final six minutes, and Miami’s 30 points included a pair of quick-strike, one-play drives late in the third quarter.

Defensively, Ohio has been strong, holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games, with Ball State’s garbage-time TD padding the 21 they allowed. Miami (OH), on the other hand, has been even more consistent, giving up over 21 points just once in MAC play – in their conference opener at Toledo.

Both teams rely on defense to win games, and with the stakes high in the MAC Championship at Ford Field, expect a grind-it-out battle similar to the first meeting, but without the late scoring flurry. This sets up well for the under.

Week 14

Illinois/Northwestern Under 44 (Lost 38-28). Look, when I dig into the numbers on this one, Northwestern’s offensive struggles jump off the page. We’re talking about a team averaging a measly 15.5 PPG and couldn’t get much worse efficiency-wise at 4.1 yards per play. What really caught my eye is how Northwestern’s ground game has been non-existent – just 3.0 yards per carry, which ranks 129th. On the flip side, Illinois isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard (26.4 PPG), but they’re extremely careful with the ball, posting the third-best interception rate in the nation at 1.05%. The efficiency gap here is massive: Illinois creates 0.406 points per play while Northwestern manages just 0.254. When one team can’t move the chains (Northwestern’s 30.66% on third downs) and the other team doesn’t give away possessions, you’ve got a clear recipe for an Under.
Rich Crew’s Pick:Under 44 – Northwestern’s offensive ineptitude plus Illinois’s ball security spells Under all day.

Week 13

North Carolina/Boston College Under 52.5. Both teams rely heavily on the run, but weather conditions—forecasted with 20 mph winds and rain—could limit offensive efficiency and scoring opportunities. UNC’s defense has been improving, holding Virginia to 14 points, Florida State to 11, and Wake Forest to 24 (including a late garbage-time score). The setup leans toward a slower-paced, defensive battle dictated by the weather and UNC’s strong defensive trends.

Rich Crew’s Pick: Under 52.5 – Weather impacts and UNC’s rising defensive performance suggest a low-scoring affair.

Week 12

Tennessee/Georgia Under 47.5 (Lost 31-17). This matchup leans heavily toward a lower-scoring game driven by elite defenses and methodical offensive styles. Georgia allows just 18.4 points per game, ranking 17th in scoring defense, while Tennessee matches that mark and has held every opponent this season to fewer than 20 points.

Both teams also trend toward the Under, with Tennessee staying below the total in six of their last ten games and Georgia in 7 of 9. Offensively, Tennessee relies on a run-heavy attack (235.1 rushing yards per game, 9th nationally), which tends to dominate the clock and limit overall possessions.

With two stout defenses, a ground-heavy approach from Tennessee, and a consistent Under trend, this game sets up perfectly to stay below the total.

Week 11

San Jose St/Oregon St Under 56.5 (Won 24-13). Here’s the breakdown: Oregon State’s above-average pass defense (198.8 yards/game, 40th nationally) is boosted by key defenders returning, which may spell trouble for San Jose State’s hit-or-miss passing game. The Beavers love to grind the clock with their run-heavy offense, but without RB Jam Griffin, they’ve struggled to finish drives and have turned the ball over more. Expect Oregon State to slow the game down, while San Jose State faces tighter coverage and potential stalls. With both teams primed for fewer explosive plays, Under 56.5 is the sharp call.

Week 10 Picks

USC/Washington Under 55 (Won 26-21). Washington’s offense has struggled to produce against stronger competition, with over 30 points scored only in early-season games against Weber State and EMU. Since then, they’ve topped 20 just once, and it’s worth noting they returned only two starters on offense this year. Defensively, however, they’ve shown consistency, especially at home, allowing a combined 34 points over four games at Husky Stadium.
While USC’s defense isn’t known for lockdown performances, their games on the road against Michigan and Minnesota both hit the under, showing they can keep scores low in certain matchups. The setup here suggests a similar pattern, with both teams more likely to play conservatively, keeping the total under 55.

Week 9 Picks

Rice/UConn Under 46.5 (Won 17-10 ). Both teams have struggled offensively, with Rice putting up just 23.3 points per game (98th) and UConn not faring much better. UConn’s defense, allowing only 21.9 points per game, has kept games tight and should limit Rice’s scoring chances. Rice also favors a slower pace, leading to fewer possessions and extended drives that grind down the clock. Turnovers could be a factor as well, with both teams showing inconsistency, especially at quarterback. The late October setting in Connecticut might bring cooler, windy conditions, adding another layer that could keep scoring low. With conservative offenses, defensive edges, and weather possibly playing a role, expect a low-scoring battle.

Week 8 Picks

Over 44.5 -106 (Lost 21-7). Michigan’s offense is coming off a bye week with key offensive line starters returning, which should boost their production. The Wolverines have scored 27 or more points in four of six games, and with Illinois struggling against the run (allowing 170.8 rushing yards per game), Michigan should control the ground game. On the other side, Illinois has shown they can move the ball through the air, averaging 8.7 yards per pass. With both teams capable of putting up points, the Over looks like the right play here.

Week 7 Picks

Northwestern/Maryland Over 45.5 (Won 37-10). This total feels low, given the dynamics at play. Maryland’s offense has been putting up over 32 points per game, and they’ll face a Northwestern defense that might not be as solid as their stats suggest, having benefited from weaker opponents. On the flip side, Northwestern’s offense showed life against Indiana after the bye week, and they now face a Maryland defense that’s been struggling against the pass, allowing over 350 yards per game to Michigan State and Indiana. With Maryland’s consistent scoring and Northwestern potentially finding some rhythm, both teams should push this game over the number.

Record: 6-6 -0.46 Units

Week 12:ennessee/Georgia Under 47.5 (Lost 31-17)
Week 11:San Jose St/Oregon St Under 56.5 (Won 24-13)
Week 10: USC/Washington Under 55 (Won 26-21 )
Week 9: Rice/UConn Under 46  (Won 17-10)
Week 8: Michigan/Illinois Over 44.5 -106  (Lost 21-7)
Week 7: Northwestern/Maryland Over 45.5 (Won 37-10)
Week 6: Syracuse/UNLV Over 55 (Won 44-41)
Week 5: Maryland/Indiana Over 50.5 (Won 42-28)
Week 4: Northwestern/Washington Over 42.5 (Lost 24-5)
Week 3: Alabama/Wisconsin Under 49 (Lost 42-10)
Week 2: Georgia Southern/Nevada Over 59 (Lost)
Week 1: Uconn/Maryland Under 45 (Lost 50 -7)