Florida Gators (5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS), 12:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, November 6, 2010, Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, Tenn. TV: SEC Network
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Fla -14/Vandy +14
Over/Under Total: 45.5
This is certainly not the same old Florida Gators football team. A team that used to compete for national championships year after year is just 5-3 overall and 3-3 in SEC play. But this game at Vanderbilt is a game the Gators should win. Vanderbilt is struggling at 2-6 overall and 1-4 in SEC play. The Commodores have lost three straight games and could desperately use a win, but this probably isn’t the game they will do so.
The Commodores’ two wins this season have come over Eastern Michigan and Ole Miss. They have lost three straight games to Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas. Their closest game in that stretch was a 21-7 home loss to Georgia. Three weeks ago, they lost 43-0 at Georgia. Last week, they lost 49-14 at Arkansas.
In Vanderbilt’s loss at Georgia, Vandy led 14-6 at the end of the first quarter. But the Bulldogs scored 43 unanswered points in the final three quarters. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett threw for 409 yards and three touchdowns. Vandy QBs Larry Smith and Jared Funk combined to go 6-for-17 passing for 36 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. Warren Norman led Vandy in rushing with 11 carries for 64 yards. Arkansas had 555 total yards of offense, while Vandy had just 153. Obviously, there’s no chance a team can even come close to competing with that total yardage disparity.
After starting the season 4-0, including two wins over Tennessee and Kentucky, the Gators proceeded to lose three games in a row to Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State. The Alabama loss was a blowout, 31-6. But they had a chance in their next two games. The Gators lost at home to LSU, 33-29, three weeks ago. Then, two weeks ago, they lost at home to Mississippi State, 10-7.
Last week, Florida rebounded and came away with a 34-31 home victory over Georgia. Kicker Chas Henry kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired to win the game. Florida QB John Brantley was 16-for-25 passing for 193 yards and an interception. It wasn’t absolutely awful, but it wasn’t his best performance ever for sure. But the Gators ran all over Georgia for 233 rushing yards. Trey Burton led the way with 17 carries for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Chris Rainey had 16 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown. Georgia did a decent job running the ball with 130 yards. In the passing department, Georgia QB Aaron Murray put up some numbers with 313 yards and three touchdowns, including a pair of 100-yard receiving games by two of his receivers, but he also threw three interceptions, which was the big difference in the game. Georgia totaled four turnovers in the game as compared to just one for Florida.
Brantley is no Tim Tebow. For the season, Brantley has 1,459 passing yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions with a 62.2 completion percentage. Jeffery Demps is Florida’s leading rusher, but it looks like the running back may be done for the season. Filling in for him is a host of Gators, including Burton and Rainey.
For Vandy, Smith has 1,030 passing yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has only completed 50.6 percent of his pass attempts. Norman leads the team in rushing with 459 yards and four touchdowns.
Florida is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games in November, 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite, 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games, 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite, and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win. Vandy is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games, 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall, 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog, and 0-4 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams.
Ryno’s Pick: This line looks like a trap, but with Vandy’s anemic offense, it sure doesn’t look like they’ll be able to score enough points to stay within 2 scores of the Florida, despite the Gators mediocrity this season.