Fresno State Bulldogs at USC Trojans
Friday, September 4, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
USC is a 22.5-point favorite at home over Fresno State on Friday night with a total of 51.5. The value here is on the road team getting the points.
Last week, USC hosted San Jose State as a 37.5-point favorite. They won 42-26. Combined 68 points meant the Over hit comfortably, but the Trojans failed to cover by 22 points. Fresno State this Friday is not San Jose State. San Jose State went 3-9 last year. Fresno State went 9-4 and won a bowl game. If USC couldn’t cover a 37.5-point spread against a team that finished 3-9, why should we expect them to cover 22.5 against a team that went 9-4 and returns most of its offensive weapons?
Fresno State’s offensive production last season was legitimate. Rayshon Luke ran for 702 yards and 6 touchdowns while adding 36 catches out of the backfield. Bryson Donelson added 600 rushing yards and 5 more touchdowns. That’s a two-headed running attack that can chew up clock and grind out drives. In the passing game, Josiah Freeman is a Group of Six Preseason All-American after catching 52 passes for 642 yards and 6 touchdowns. Ezekiel Avit adds another 28 receptions.
That’s a real offense with multiple ways to move the ball. And they’re facing a USC defense that gave up 269 points last year — about 20 points per game — which isn’t elite. Fresno State should be able to score.
The road factor also isn’t a big deal here. Fresno State was 4-2 on the road last year, and Fresno to Los Angeles isn’t a taxing trip. This is Matt Entz’s second year building the Bulldogs, and he’s added Pac-12 talent through the portal to make them competitive in their new conference.
USC’s own tendencies also work against covering. Under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans have historically been slow starters, and they don’t play with the killer instinct needed to blow out inferior competition. The Trojans led SJSU 21-6 at halftime last week and only outscored them 21-20 in the second half. That’s not a team locked in on running up the score — that’s a team going through the motions after building an early lead.
Fresno State is a legitimate offensive threat that can score two or three touchdowns even against USC’s defense. If Fresno State scores 20-24 points and USC wins 38-24 or 34-21, both of those results land inside 22.5.
I considered the total. Over 51.5 has real merit — USC put up 42 last week and Fresno State has offensive weapons. Both teams have questionable defenses. But the side has the cleaner pattern given USC’s failure to cover a much bigger spread against a much worse opponent just seven days ago.
The Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +22.5
