Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Title Game Picks

by | Nov 29, 2021 | cfb

Georgia Bulldogs (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 4, 4 p.m.

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: CBS

Point Spread: UGA -6/ALA +6 (BetNow - Bet your Week 14 college football picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000!)

Total: O/U 50.5

Outlook

All year long, Georgia has appeared head and shoulders above the rest of the SEC, and now the Bulldogs have the chance to prove it. Georgia has been in this situation before, having lost to Alabama in both the 2017 College Football Playoff championship game and the 2018 SEC championship game, both in situations where the Bulldogs appeared to have the game won but couldn’t hold off the favored Crimson Tide.

This time around, it’s Georgia who’s the expected favorite after running through its schedule as one of just two undefeated teams in the nation (the other being Cincinnati) and outscoring its opponents by an average of 41-7. Only Tennessee has managed to top 14 points against the Bulldogs this season, who have dominated on defense from start to finish.

Alabama has looked strong at times this year, but this is not a vintage Alabama team. This team hasn’t really looked right since the Tennessee win, as they’ve been barely surviving each week against LSU, Arkansas and Auburn, escaping the last game with a late drive and a strong stand in four overtimes. That both speaks to the step back Alabama has taken and why they’re still a dangerous team. The Tide have been winning for so long that they’re like Dracula: they’re not done until the wooden stake is firmly secure in their chest. For all its struggles, Alabama is still 11-1, and if the Tide win here, they’re in the playoff. Even with a loss, Alabama could still sneak in as a No. 4 seed and win a rematch with Georgia, as long as it’s close. That makes Georgia the rare favorite with a reason to play for a blowout, which could be very helpful.

How the Public is Betting the Georgia/Alabama Game

If you like the Bulldogs here, grab them now. The line has already ticked up from -4 to -6, with 66 percent of tickets coming in on the Bulldogs. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 50.5.

Injury Concerns

Georgia:
Offensive lineman Jamaree Salyer (foot) and wide receiver Kearis Jackson (ribs) are questionable. Running back Kendall Milton (knee), linebacker Adam Anderson (suspension), wide receiver Arian Smith (leg), cornerback Jalen Kimber (shoulder), linebacker Rian Davis (quadricep), defensive end Tykee Smith (knee), wide receiver Arik Gilbert (personal) and offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (foot) are out.

Alabama:
Linebacker Keanu Koht (foot) and wide receiver Jojo Earle (undisclosed) are questionable. Running back Roydell Williams (knee), running back Camar Wheaton (knee), running back Jase McClellan (knee), linebacker Christopher Allen (foot) and wide receiver Xavier Williams (undisclosed) are out.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Georgia is the rich man’s version of Oklahoma State: the Bulldogs depend on the defense to set up the offense, and the offense isn’t tasked with trying to win the game by itself. However, the offense can create some big plays and often does, making the defense’s job even easier. Stetson Bennett remains a game manager rather than an elite passer, but that’s worked out just fine for Georgia, as Bennett has just five interceptions and 17 touchdowns on the season.

He’ll have to be at his best in this game, because Zamir White and the Georgia running game will likely find the going rough against this Alabama defense. But the Tide is soft in the secondary, and Georgia is starting to get healthy. George Pickens hadn’t been able to play all season after tearing his ACL in the spring, but he finally returned against Georgia Tech in the season finale. If he’s able to go, Georgia’s passing attack becomes much more effective.

When Alabama Has the Ball

With an elite offense, the question is usually what can a defense try to take away. Alabama faces the opposite problem: what can the Tide’s offense try to attack against Georgia? Unlike Alabama itself, which defends the run even better than Georgia but is susceptible to the pass, Georgia’s defense does everything well. The Bulldogs rank second against the pass and fourth against the run, which is why teams rarely top double digits against them.

But if anyone can attack the Dawgs, it’s Alabama, which might have the Heisman winner in Bryce Young. The Tide were nearly dealt a crippling blow when Jameson Williams was tossed for targeting against Auburn on special teams, but it happened in the first half, so he’s eligible to play the entire game against Georgia. John Metchie was the go-to guy with Williams out, but with Bama at full strength again, the Bulldogs’ secondary will face its toughest test of the season.

Betting Trends

It’s been six straight wins for Alabama in this series, and the Tide have their offense to thank. Georgia has usually been able to score with Alabama; it just hasn’t been able to stop the Tide. The past six games in the series have all seen Alabama get to at least 26 points, with the Tide hitting 30 or more in five of them. In fact, Georgia has never beaten Alabama when it’s allowed 26 or more points to the Tide (Alabama is 23-0 all-time against Georgia when it gets to that magic number and 18-25-4 when it doesn’t). On the flip side, Alabama hasn’t beaten Georgia without getting to 26 since 1991.

Neither of the trends in this series favor Georgia: the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the over is 7-1-1 in the past nine matchups. However, betting against Kirby Smart in December is usually a bad move: the Dawgs have covered six of their past seven games played in the year’s final month.

Weather Report

The roof will be closed, so weather will play no part in this game.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Based on what we’ve seen so far, Alabama has been living dangerously all year long and is nowhere near as good as what we’ve seen in past seasons. Georgia hasn’t really been scratched all season, and the Bulldogs have blasted a pair of teams that gave Alabama a run for its money.
But there’s another factor at play here: Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs don’t want any part of seeing Alabama a second time. The Bulldogs don’t just need to win, they need a no-doubt cover to knock Alabama out of the playoff completely — or this game will have been nothing but a dress rehearsal.
Georgia does not want to have to beat Alabama twice and will go for the knockout blow. That should mean a double-digit win, so give me the Bulldogs. Bet your Alabama vs. Georgia pick and ALL your sports bets at -105 odds (instead of the spendier -110 your bookie is socking you) at one of the web’s best betting sites: BetAnySports! Over 10 years on the Predictem site with ZERO complaints!