Georgia State Panthers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS) vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date and Time: October 5th, 2013. 12:21PM Eastern
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, A.L.
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GSU -55.5/ALA +55.5
The top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the Georgia
State Panthers in Tuscaloosa for an early kick at 12:21 Eastern
this Saturday. The Crimson Tide silenced doubters last week with a 25-0
shutout over rival Ole Miss. Many thought the Rebels would have a shot to
contend for an upset but the Alabama defense reminded the nation why they
are the reigning back to back National Champions. This week the Nick Saban’s
Crimson Tide will participate in a walk-through scrimmage as you might call
it when they host the Panthers as enormous 55.5 point favorites.
While I give the Panthers absolutely zero chance to pull out a victory this Saturday, let me at least tell you a bit about the team you have never heard of and give you my thoughts on this lopsided point spread. Georgia State is currently 0-4 in their first season in the FBS. That’s right contrary to popular belief; the Panthers are a Division I team as they accepted an invitation to join the Sun Belt earlier this year. The Panthers football team has not been around long as they fielded their first team in 2010. To date, Georgia State has just 10 (FCS) wins in their entire history. Last year the team went 1-10 with a lone victory over Rhode Island. So far this year things have not been much better as the Panthers are 0-4 despite playing 3 FCS schools.
Simply put Georgia State is simply not at the talent level to evenly compete with FBS talent. I would label WR Albert Wilson as they only player with respectable FBS talent. Wilson has 22 catches for 457 yards and 4 touchdowns this season and he is solid wide out. Still Georgia State is playing the almighty Alabama Crimson Tide that has NFL type size on both the offensive and defensive lines. The Crimson Tide should and will dominate in every aspect of the game. Of course the bigger question is how will they stack up against that enormous 55.5 point spread?
While you can expect all of Alabama’s stars to pad their stats this Saturday, Nick Saban may not let everyone stay in the game if things get out of hand quickly judging by past performances. Running back T.J Yeldon (394 rush yds, 3 TDs) and QB A.J McCarron (882 pass yds, 6 TDs, 3 INTs) are extremely important towards Alabama’s run at a 3 peat. Furthermore Saban has never been the guy to run up the score on opponents late in games. If you look throughout his tenure in Tuscaloosa, Alabama has only beat one opponent by more than 55.5 points and that by just a half point to this same Georgia State team back in 2011 by a score of 63-7. Expect this one to be just a bit closer than that meeting in 2011 as the Panthers cover despite scoring an offensive touchdown.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I know the betting public does not like fading the Crimson Tide. Truthfully it seems irrational to fade the number 1 team in the country any week. However as I alluded to earlier, I really think Saban calls off the dogs early in this game and keeps it within the number. Still not convinced? Then take a look at this stat. Alabama is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when they have been favored by 31 points or more. Additionally the Crimson Tide have dropped 3 straight ATS when playing Sun Belt opponents. Take Georgia State +55.5
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