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Free Pick: Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Betting Preview

by | Nov 21, 2018 | cfb

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS)

When:Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 12:00 ET
Where:Sanford Stadium – Athens, Georgia
TV:SEC Network

Point Spread:TECH +17.5 / DAWGS -17.5
Poll Rankings:DAWGS -18

Takeaways From Week 12

Georgia Tech comes in off their fourth consecutive win, but it was a hard-fought triumph that required overtime. The Ramblin’ Wreck defeated the visiting Virginia Cavaliers 30-27 failing to cover as a 6.5-point favorite. Overall, Tech has been hot as they have lost just one game in their last seven outings overall. Their sole defeat over this span came against Duke at home where the Bees were favored by 1.5 points. Undoubtedly, the good form of this team is influencing the market assessment in the early going.

The Bulldog Nation continues to play a better brand of football with each week that passes. Since losing to LSU on October 6th, the Dawgs have won four straight, three of which came against ranked opponents (two in the Top 10). Most recently, the Red and Black polished the UMass Minutemen 66-27 Between The Hedges on Saturday. The Dawgs failed to cover because they had closed as a lofty 43.5-point favorite. Viewers got to see two sides of Georgia football as both quarterbacks Jake Fromm and Justin Fields each contributed to a prolific offensive outing by the Classic City Canines.

How the Public is Betting the Georgia-Georgia Tech Game

Presently, 55% of the public consensus liking Tech in this spot. We have not seen any line movements take shape here as a result. Nevertheless, Tech seemingly is positioned to be a public dog this week taking back three-plus scores in a rivalry game known no other than as “Clean Old-Fashioned Hate”.

The Historical

One thing that is worth annotating about this Peach State rivalry is that seemingly “home field” bears no advantage here. Unfortunately for the Dawgs, they led by 13 points heading into the fourth quarter in the last episode of this contest in Athens in 2016. Tech would get a one-point win. Last year, the Dawgs got vindication when they blasted GT on its own field in Atlanta by a score of 35-7. With this being said the Away Team has won the last five games. However, this brand of Bulldog is primed to end that narrative.

Injury Concerns

The Dawgs are on the mend as key offensive linemen such as Ben Cleveland and Kendall Baker are listed as day-to-day. With this being said, the Red and Black have reached into their depth to plug in young talent that has excelled in their expanded roles. The Yellow Jackets
have no key injuries to report at the present time.

When Georgia Tech Has the Ball

The Ramblin’ Wreck owns one of the most unique and signature offenses in the country with a triple-option attack. As a whole, it is something that is not seen often in the SEC. Fortunately for the Dawgs, they have familiarity with this style of play given their annual rivalry with their cross-state counterparts. The fact remains that Tech owns the best rushing offense in America as they collate 353.8 yards per game. Nevertheless, they are up against a stingy Junkyard Dawg defense that allows just 128.5 yards per game (27th in America) that gives up only 16.8 points per game (12th nationally).

When Georgia Has the Ball

The Dawgs are a running specialist in their own right as they feature a dynamic one-two punch of rushers DeAndre Swift and Elijah Holyfield. The Bulldog rushing attack has produced a ninth-ranked 258.1 yards per game as they have seemingly not missed a step after seeing the greatest rushing duo in college football graduate to the NFL (Sony Michel and Nick Chubb). However, UGA also has a quarterback Jake Fromm that can hurt you in the passing game as he has completed 68% of his passes, thrown 20 touchdowns and just five picks. The Dawgs are presently scoring 39.6 points per game (15th in America). Tech’s defense is giving up an affable 27.5 points per game (70th nationally), so the prospects for the Dawgs lighting up the scoreboard here is quite favorable.

Betting Trends

We have already highlighted the narrative of the Away Team winning the last five which will undoubtedly cause many to look at the Yellow Jackets. In addition, the Road Team is 15-2-1 ATS in the previous 18 installments of Clean Old-Fashioned Hate. Finally, Tech is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven contests as the Bulldog Nation. All of these trends will incite many to push the bet button on the Yellow Jackets.

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Weather Report

Weather conditions are expected to be cold, overcast, and damp with a 95% chance of precipitation expected on Saturday. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid-’50s.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -17.5

With a showdown and rematch of 2018 National Championship Game looming with undefeated Alabama in the SEC Championship next week, there are many that suspect that the Dawgs may be guilty of looking past their arch-rivals in preparation for the high-stakes affair. However, the Bulldogs will do no such thing. There is plenty of motivation here for UGA to win and do so emphatically not only to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee but to also stop Tech from helping itself to some of the hedges. A win against the Yellow Jackets had not occurred in Athens since 2012 when the Dawgs were on a collision course with Alabama to play for a National Championship Game berth in the SEC Championship the week thereafter. The Bulldogs will get all over Tech early and run the ball down their throat. The Dawgs will play clock control and force Tech to play from behind which is something that Tech does not do well given their strategic approach. The Dawgs will roll onto yet another statement win and beat down the Yellow Jackets.

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