Hawaii Warriors (1-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. BYU Cougars (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Friday September 28, 2012. 9:00 p.m. EST.
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
TV: ESPN
by Wilson, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Hawaii +27.5/Brigham Young University -27.5
Over/Under Total: Off
BYU may catch a break in this week’s matchup with Hawai’i as the Cougar’s offense is still defining itself due to significant injuries and lackluster performances; the big concern for the Cougars is who will be taking snaps? The quarterback situation is dire as starting QB Riley Nelson recently played against Utah and Boise State with a back injury. Even though the Cougar’s freshman QB, Taysom Hill led BYU to their only touchdown versus Boise State coach Bronco Mendenhall said he will start Nelson this Friday if he is healthy-which is a long “if” especially from a back injury. The sigh of relief for the BYU boys is the fact that Hawai’i struggles on defense. The Warriors are flat out lethargic defensively.
Hawai’i gave up 69 points last week on their own turf to the Nevada Wolfpack; losing 69-24. New Hawai’i coach, Norm Chow, who is the former BYU QBs coach and offensive coordinator, may not like his return visit to Provo if his team cannot figure out how to get stops. BYU is hungry for a positive game and this one figures to be just that for the Cougars. BYU has already opened as the favorite at 27.5, and given Hawai’i’s poor defensive numbers it should be a “walk in the park” in Provo this Friday.
The Warriors are 116th nationally in scoring defense. They are 70th in rushing defense as they allow 160 yards per game on the ground. Finally, the Warriors are 69th in total defense as they give up 373 yards per game on average. This formula should prove to favor any team who’s offensive has struggled of late, thus BYU will use this week to iron out its offensive wrinkles and build some much needed confidence both for the team and the Cougar faithful.
BYU’s offense definitely needs to clean up their act regardless of who is behind center. The Cougars have been flagged by penalties and mental mistakes all season and the coaching staff is eager to see if the guys can learn from previous errors-Hawai’i will be the perfect team to help the Cougars get back on track. The Cougars offense, if ran well will show a lot of different looks both with the run and the pass which should shred the Warrior’s Swiss cheese of a defense.
Defensively for the Cougars it should be a stellar game as BYU is ranked among the top defenses in the nation. Hawai’i could only muster 378 total offensive yards against Nevada last week while BYU’s defense has not allowed more than 300 yards of offense in 10 consecutive contests. The Cougars are currently 7th in total defense by only allowing 246 yards per game.
These two teams played last December in Hawai’i where the Cougars won 41-20. BYU is looking to get back in the winners column this week, and on paper they shouldn’t have any difficulty doing so. The only hiccup for BYU may be at the QB position but even then they are a better football team all around then Hawai’i.
Wilson’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: But wait! All arrows point at BYU for a big win, but Vegas is locking their chops that you’ll be sucked into betting them. A favorite laying -27.5 points is just begging the public to think that “all it will take is for them to win by 4 TD’s and I cover!” Vegas wasn’t built on winners people. This is a nasty sucker line that you should not get duped into. Smart money is on Hawaii in what will most likely be an unbearable game to watch watch with Hawaii sneaking in just under the number for a cover.
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