Indiana Hoosiers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS)
NCAAF Week 12
November 19th 2016 /Time: 3:30 PM EST
Where: Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Michigan -23
Over/Under Total: 53.5
Michigan lost their first game of the season in their last game, but even with the loss they dodged a bullet. They only dropped one spot in the BCS rankings from 2 to 3 and they still have their fate in their hands. If they win out they will win the Big 10 and make the BCS playoffs. However, after facing Indiana they hit the road to face an Ohio State team that jumped to 2nd in the recent BCS rankings.
Indiana had their modest 2-game win streak snapped in their last game and they are only 1-3 this season facing ranked teams. Their win over a top 25 teams this season came early facing Michigan State, who are currently 2-7. They only need 1 more win to be bowl eligible, but they may have to wait until their season finale to get it unless they find a way to beat Michigan in their house as HUGE underdogs. The Hoosiers do have 2 road wins this season, but they have come against the less than powerhouse teams of Florida International and Rutgers.
Michigan lost to Iowa in their last game killing their perfect season and they lost on a last-second FG. The main reason the Wolverines lost is that they could not move the ball with only 201 yards with 103 passing yards and 98 rushing yards. They did play good D in the game, but their offense stalled, they committed 2 turnovers, and they were only 5/15 on 3rd downs. They only scored 13 points after averaging more than 50 in their previous 4 games.
Not only did Michigan lose their last game, but they also lost starting QB Wilton Speight for the season due to an injury. With him out Houston transfer John OKorn will likely get the start under center and for the season he has only passed for 114 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. With a new QB the Wolverines may lean on the run more with RBs De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans, who have both rushed for over 500 yards on the season.
Michigan will be facing an Indiana defense that ranks 73rd in the nation against the run and 52nd against the pass. The Hoosiers lost their last game 45-31 where they defended the run well, but gave up 332 yards in the air.
Indiana really shot themselves in the foot in the loss to Penn State, as they outgained them by 45 yards, but committed 5 turnovers. In the game QB Richard Lagow passed for 292 yards with 2 TD and Devine Redding rushed for 108 yards. The Hoosies need to hold onto the rock in this game, as all 5 of their turnovers facing Penn State were on fumbles.
Can Indiana move the ball on the Wolverines? That is the big question in this Big 10 match up. Michigan did play solid D in the loss to Iowa and they have the top-ranked scoring defense in the nation only giving up an average of 11 ppg. Overall they rank 1st in the nation defending the pass and 13th defending the run.
Last season at Indiana these teams played a barnburner with Michigan pulling out the 48-41 win in 2 OT.
Indiana is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and Michigan is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. In the last 5 games between these Big 10 rivals the total has gone Over 4 times.
Michigan is happy they are still in the top 4 in the BCS rankings, but cant be happy losing their first game of the season last week. They will take their frustrations out on the Hoosiers and while they may not light up the scoreboard they will shut the Hoosies offense down easily winning and covering the spread.
Jasons Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Michigan -23