Big Ten Prediction: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Indiana Hoosiers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 17th, 2018 – 4:00 PM ET
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
Point Spread: IU +28 / MICH -28
Power Ratings: Michigan -29
Takeaways From Week 11
The Hoosiers snapped a four-game losing streak last week when they defeated the Maryland Terrapins at home by a score of 34-32. Indiana closed as a two-point favorite and provided takers with a splitting-hairs cover. The Hoosiers had gotten off to a stellar 4-1 start until they ran into a brutal three-game stretch against the B1G’s best when they played Ohio State on the road followed by Iowa and Penn State at home where they lost all three. Their toils against the premium teams of the conference are undoubtedly fuelling the price of this market.
The Wolverines continue to dominate as they have now won nine a row since losing to No. 3 Notre Dame to kick off their 2018-19 campaign. In the last three weeks of action, Michigan has not allowed more than one touchdown while scoring 105 points against Michigan State, Penn State, and most recently Rutgers.
How the Public is Betting the Indiana-Michigan Game
At the moment, 53% of the consensus are willing to lay the lumber with the Wolverines. We have seen the line move by just half of a point since its open. That half point, however, is significant as it affords Indiana four full touchdowns now to safely cover.
In what will undoubtedly sell the stock of the Wolverines, the Maize and Blue presently boast a 22-game winning streak over the Hoosiers. Last year, that streak nearly came to an end when overtime was required to declare a winner in Bloomington when the Hoosiers hosted the Wolverines. The final score was 27-20 Michigan in the latest chapter of this series in 2017.
There are no notable injury concerns for either team as they head into this contest.
When Indiana Has the Ball
The heartbeat of the Indiana offense is their signal caller QB Peyton Ramsey who has thrown for 2,335 yards and 17 touchdowns. The Hoosiers also feature a terrific running back that goes by the name of Stevie Scott. So far in 2018, Scott has been prolific as he has accumulated 894 yards on the ground while scoring on nine occasions. He is undoubtedly on his way to a 1,000-yard rushing campaign and a 10-touchdown effort despite being on an offense that ranks 83rd in the country in the rushing department (155.6 yards per game). The Hoosiers pass first but have been a weapon in the running game.
When Michigan Has the Ball
The Wolverines will not bewitch you with their offense. They are known as a defense-first team that loves to wear opponents down with a heavy dose of the run. Michigan’s running game has been solid as it is the 31st ranked outfit in the country averaging 215.4 yards per game on the ground. The man leading the charge is their 1,005-yard rusher Karan Higdon who has also found pay-dirt nine times this season. The Wolverine rushing attack serves as a tremendous compliment to their top-ranked defense regarding total yardage (219.8 yards per game) that allows just 12.9 points per game (3rd nationally), as ball control gives their defense the ability to stay fresh.
One trend that will assuredly enchant action on Michigan is the fact that the Home Team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between both teams. For Totals players, the Over is 5-2 ATS in the previous seven contests.
It’s going to be a cold day in Ann Arbor as temperatures are expected to hover around the freezing point. The good news is that the conditions will fair otherwise as it will be sunny with little wind or humidity.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Indiana +28
There is a huge elephant in the room and its dressed as Brutus The Buckeye. Next week, Michigan has a date with her arch nemesis Ohio State in The Horseshoe for a rivalry feud known simply as “The Game”. With Ohio State almost definitely coming into this collision with one loss and a top-ten ranking, the storied acrimony will decide the fate of both participants’ B1G and College Football Playoff fates in one fell swoop. It is without question that this game is on the minds of every Maize and Blue coach, player, and supporter and as a result, it is very likely that Michigan will be looking past a team they are favored to beat by four touchdowns. However, Indiana will be motivated as they will be thinking about last year’s episode and how close they came to ending the Michigan win streak. This sets up the Wolverines to post a mediocre performance and puts takers in a position to fall victim to an overlay. If at nothing else, the inflated number also poses a backdoor potential for the Hoosiers as they can easily generate a few junk-time scores should Michigan get this one under control early and then call off the dogs to protect their starters for next week’s showdown.