Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Recommended Bet 10/22/22

by | Oct 19, 2022 | cfb

Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, October 22, Noon

Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

TV: Fox

Point Spread: IOWA +28.5/OHST -28.5 (BAS – Bet on games at -105 instead of -110! You’ll save TONS of cash and be so glad you invested the 5 minutes to do so!)

Total: O/U 49.5

Outlook

The last time Ohio State took on Iowa might have been the darkest moment of the Urban Meyer era in Columbus, as the Buckeyes wound up on the wrong side of a 55-24 rout. Since then, the Buckeyes have become the Big Ten’s dominant power, and the Hawkeyes have drifted into the Big Ten West logjam that seems to dominate the lesser division every season. It’s been five seasons now since that domination of the Buckeyes, and few people in Columbus have forgotten that moment.
And now Ohio State is in a position to finally get a measure of revenge, as the Buckeyes welcome Iowa to Ohio Stadium, where the Hawkeyes haven’t won since 1991. It seems like Kirk Ferentz has been in Iowa City forever, but that game was so long ago that Ferentz was a 36-year-old coach of Maine when it took place. The Hawkeyes have only beaten Ohio State eight times in Columbus, and the last time they managed consecutive wins over the Buckeyes was 1959 and 1960. And this seems pretty unlikely to change that, given that the Hawkeyes still haven’t discovered an offense with half of the season now gone.

How the Public is Betting the Iowa/Ohio State Game

The public doesn’t think Iowa’s defense is going to allow this one to be a bigger blowout than four touchdowns. The number has dropped from -29.5 to -28.5, and 59% of tickets have come in on the Hawkeyes. The total has actually gone up slightly, jumping from 49 to 49.5.

Injury Concerns

Iowa:
Wide receiver Keagan Johnson (lower body) is questionable. Linebacker Jestin Jacobs (undisclosed), defensive back Jermari Harris (illness), wide receiver Diante Vines (wrist), and wide receiver Jackson Ritter (undisclosed) are out.

Ohio State:
Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hamstring) is probable. Tight end Joe Royer (undisclosed), linebacker Teradja Mitchell (undisclosed), running back TreVeyon Henderson (undisclosed), and running back Miyan Williams (undisclosed) are questionable. Cornerback Jordan Hancock (undisclosed), wide receiver Kamryn Babb (knee), running back Evan Pryor (knee), and linebacker Mitchell Melton (knee) are out.

When Iowa Has the Ball

It hasn’t mattered what Iowa has tried on offense in 2022. Nothing has worked for the Hawkeyes, who sit 131st in the nation in total offense and average a mere 14.7 points per game. Spencer Petras has earned plenty of scorn in Iowa City for his play at the quarterback position, but Iowa hasn’t gone to anyone else, suggesting a total lack of faith in the rest of the Hawkeyes’ quarterbacks. The running game is no better, as Iowa ranks 126th at running the football and gets little production out of Leshon Williams.
Really, Iowa’s best offense this season has been punting and letting the defense try and create points on its own. It’s pretty rare to see an Iowa drive start in its own end of the field and finish with points on the scoreboard. Usually, the Hawkeyes need an opponent to make a mistake to do enough to create their own kind of score. When they’ve got to create their own offense and start a drive, it almost always ends badly.

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When Ohio State Has the Ball

At the other end of the spectrum, you have the Buckeyes, who rank second in the nation in yards and lead the nation in points. While Iowa has only scored 88 points for the entire season, Ohio State averages 48.8 points per game. Only a strong defensive effort from Notre Dame kept the Buckeyes from topping 50 points per game on the year, and that performance is one big reason why Iowa thinks it can at least keep the game close.
Ohio State’s offense has been simply outstanding, but it’s also only played one solid defense all year in Notre Dame. Its three Big Ten opponents have a combined overall record of 9-11 on the season, and Toledo and Arkansas State just don’t match up to the speed and abilities of a Big Ten championship offense. Iowa, however, does play defense and plays it better than most teams in the nation. The Hawkeyes make their living off of frustrating their opponents and getting them to do something foolish, then cashing in when the mistake hands them a possession. C.J. Stroud isn’t likely to give up much, as he has just three interceptions on the year against 24 touchdowns and features an abundance of weapons at his disposal. If Ohio State plays too fast, it is vulnerable, but the Buckeyes should be in control here.

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Betting Trends

Iowa has managed to cover in three of four matchups, but these teams also haven’t played in five years because of the Big Ten’s divisional setup. The Buckeyes have become a much stronger team, and the Hawkeyes have gone in the other direction since that time. Plus, betting against Ohio State has been foolish in October; the Buckeyes have covered nine times in their past 11 contests in the year’s tenth month.
Ohio State has also been a regular Over team, hitting the number in four straight games. Iowa, on the other hand, has played under once in six tries, and the exception only came against Rutgers because the Hawkeyes’ defense put two touchdowns on the board.

Weather Report

After a chilly week in the Midwest, warm weather returns to Ohio for this matchup. Temperatures will hit 75 degrees for this matchup with no rain in the forecast, and the wind will blow south at nine miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

It’s hard as heck to pick on the spread in either situation because the number is just so massive. Iowa is probably going to play well enough on defense to keep this respectable because the Hawkeyes’ defense is elite, and Ohio State really hasn’t seen a top defense at all this season.
The Hawkeyes aren’t going to win this game in Columbus, but can they stay within four touchdowns of the Buckeyes? As long as the offense doesn’t give up possessions on their own half of the field, yes. Iowa and the points make sense here. Bet your Week 8 CFB predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!