Iowa State Cyclones (3-3 SU 3-3 ATS) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0 SU 2-3 ATS) Week 7 NCAA Football, Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman OK, 7 PM EST Saturday October 16, 2010
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: ISU +22.5/Okl -22.5
Over/Under Total: 58
This Saturday the undefeated Oklahoma Sooners host the Iowa State Cyclones in a Big 12 match up. Iowa State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Utah where they gave up 68 points and things do not get any easier for them in this game facing Oklahoma and their 17th ranked passing offense.
Oklahoma is coming off 2 solid wins in a row against Cincinnati and then a couple weeks back beating Texas in the Red River rivalry game. The Sooners are 1-0 and have a great shot to win the Big 12 and get back to a BCS bowl game, but they still have to face Oklahoma State and Missouri, who are both ranked in the top 25.
In the last 5 games between these 2 teams the Cyclones have only covered the spread one time, but the Sooners have to cover a big 22.5-point spread and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more.
In their last games Iowa State was killed 68-27 by Utah while Oklahoma beat Texas 28-20.
This game is Iowa State’s second road game of the season and in their first one they were crushed 35-7 against in-state rival Iowa.
Oklahoma is led by QB Landry Jones (1,457 yards 11 TD), who has played great in the last 2 games with 370 yards and 2 TD against Cincinnati and 236 yards and 2 TD against Texas. He has a solid core of receivers and he will put up big numbers again against Iowa State and their 66th ranked pass defense. I mean, the Cyclones gave up 354 passing yards to Utah last week and Oklahoma has a better passing offense than Utah does.
The Sooners have not been that good this season at running the ball ranking 90th in the nation in rushing yards per game. However, one-time Heisman candidate RB DeMarco Murray ran for 115 yards against Texas and he will break the 100-yard barrier again facing the Cyclones’ rushing defense that only ranks 102nd in the nation.
With the defensive issues that Iowa State has they may have to light up the scoreboard to come away from Norman with a win. That is very unlikely since their passing offense only ranks 96th in the nation and their rushing offense only ranks 63rd. Sure, Iowa State beat Texas Tech a couple of weeks back 52-38, but they were out-gained in the game in total yardage and had fewer first downs. In the game Tech had 3 turnovers and Iowa State QB Austen Arnaud was facing a pass defense that ranks 114th in the nation. The Sooners have had their issues on defense this season, but the Cyclones will not score a lot of points against them.
Arnaud had a terrible game against Utah going 13/31 for 178 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT and he simply does not have the weapons to get into a shootout with the Sooners. He will not be facing a good Sooners’ pass defense (ranking 98th in the nation), but he will be pressured all game by the OU pass rush and he will not have a big game.
Oklahoma has not defended the run well this season, but Iowa State RB Alexander Robinson (449 yards 5 TD) has an injured foot and did not finish the Utah game. X-rays were negative, but even if he plays he will not be 100%, so the Cyclones will not be able to run the ball for many yards against Oklahoma.
Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, but they are also only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams that have winning records.
Oklahoma has been a solid betting pick in Big 12 games, as they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference games.
The Under may be a good pick in this game, as Iowa State has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games, an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 Big 12 games, and Oklahoma has an Under record of 13-6 in their last 19 games.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Norman is never an easy place to play and that is especially the case for an Iowa State team that has issues on defense and has a RB that is injured. The 22.5-point spread is a big one and I am taking it, as I think the Sooners will play lights out since they feel they are not getting the national respect they deserve.