Kansas Jayhawks (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time:Saturday, November 14, 12:00pm
Where: Amon G Carter Stadium Fort Worth, Texas
TV: Fox Sports 1
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KAN +44.5 / TCU -44.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
Saturday at noon, the Kansas Jayhawks will travel into Fort Worth to take on a highly upset and angry TCU team. Well, I say angry, but extremely let down is probably the best choice of words. TCU is coming off their first loss in quite some time, and their first loss of 2015 after Oklahoma State took them to the woodshed last week beating the Horned Frogs 49-29. This game was a beat down from the very start, and not to toot my own horn, but I did predict Okie State to cover the +5.5, I just did not think they would win like they did. Okay, nonetheless, that is now in the past and the most important games are this coming up weekend. TCU enters at 8-1 overall and 5-1 in the conference while Kansas is just plain sad coming in at 0-9 overall and 0-6 in Big 12 play. At some point one would think Kansas is due for a winbut is it this week?
Not only is Kansas not supposed to win this game, the Vegas line tells you that they have 0% chance to even keep it close. TCU comes in as a 44.5 home favorite over the Jayhawks but if history is any indication, Kansas has played TCU pretty tough in the last few seasons. Just last year, in Kansas, TCU came in as a 28 point road favorite only to win the game 34-30 in a game that many think was the reason the playoff committee left TCU out in the end. Not only that, but even in 2012 and 2013, Kansas again covered spreads that TCU was heavily favored. Can the Jayhawks make it four straight against the spread in this series? According to the early Vegas action, 61% of the bettors like TCU to regroup and cover this one, while 49% have faith in the Jayhawks to keep it within 44 points. As of early Monday morning, there has been no line set for the total points.
TCU, boy oh boy, how sad. Last year, I firmly believe they deserved a shot at the final four and I was hoping they would run the table this year and get in to see how they match up with the other big dogs. Oh well, maybe next year. I mean it isnt a done deal, but I dont see how they can now win the Big 12, much less impress the committee enough to get into the playoff. I predicted a shootout in Stillwater against Oklahoma State, but the only team shooting anything were the Cowboys. Like I said in my write up on that game last week, I stated that Oklahoma State was the best offense TCU played and they would score points, but I truly thought the Frogs would score too. Heisman hopeful, well, former Heisman hopeful, Trevone Boykin, passed for just one touchdown and four interceptions in the loss. He did pass for over 440 yards but when you throw nearly 60 times, that is not too hard to do. Oklahoma State made these guys look bad, real bad. So, here we are in a game that TCU will respond in two ways: 1- Show that they are a true power and beat the brakes off of Kansas, or 2- realize that any dream of a national title is over and have a complete let down. I could see this one going either direction. I am not saying Kansas comes in and beats TCU, but we are talking about a 44 point spread, not a 5 point one. Even after the loss, TCU ranks very high in most statistical categories nation wide. They still rank 3rd in the nation in passing yards, 2nd in scoring offense, and top 20 in rushing. Listen, TCU is still a very good team, they just ran into an even hotter team in Oklahoma State. I believe TCU can still win out and although they will not be repping the Big 12 in the final four, they will still get a very good bowl game. The key this week is to have a short memory. The Okie State game is over, now move on, and keep playing ball. Trevone Boykin needs to play like the Heisman caliber player he is, and by god, the defense needs to get stops. Playing a team like Kansas is actually a blessing coming off a loss. TCU would not want to see Baylor this weekend.
Kansas is a bad football team. Very bad. Winless both overall and in the conference and they really have not played competitive in most of their games so far in 2015. Statistically, wow, check out the inefficiencies, the Jayhawks are the 119th ranked scoring offense at just 18 points per game, 128th ranked defense allowing almost 50 per game, and their offense behind the 117th run game and 60th ranked passing game only averages about 350 total yards per game. This is not a good match up for Kansas at all and I mean AT ALL. The only way Kansas can win is a true miracle from God, but to cover, that is not so bad. They just need a few stops. Watch the tape from last week and see how Oklahoma State got in position to make plays on Boykin. Yes, the Cowboys have a much more talented roster, but if Kansas can somehow make TCU turn the ball just a time or two, they may can keep this game somewhat respectable and keep it within 40 or so.
I hate large point spreads like this, typically I lay off these games just for the reason that one bad play, or an early substitution by the team up 35 can effect the total score. 61 % like TCU, Kansas has covered the last three, TCU coming off of a huge letdown, and the kick off is an early one. I think this has the makings of an ugly, sloppy game and in those cases, I always take the big points that are handed to me. TCU will win this game something like 45-13. But that means the Jayhawks get the cover.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: KANSAS JAYHAWKS +44
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