Kansas Jayhawks (5-5 2-7 ATS) vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns (10-0 3-6-1 ATS) Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Auston, TX 8 PM EST Saturday November 21, 2009 on ABC
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jayhawks +27.5 / Longhorns -27.5
This Saturday night the 3rd ranked Texas Longhorns host the struggling Kansas Jayhawks. The Longhorns can clinch the Big 12 South Division in this game, which is their last home game of the season. To say that Kansas is in trouble is a major understatement, as they have lost 5 games in a row and the school is conducting an internal investigation involving head coach Mark Mangino.
Kansas began the season with 5 straight wins, but now they may not even play in a bowl game unless they can win one of their last 2 games.
Colt McCoy may be the Heisman front-runner and if he wins this game the Longhorns will not only lock up a date in the Big 12 title game, but he will also become the winningest QB in NCAA history.
Kansas QB Todd Reesing is putting up legit numbers, but the Kansas’ D only ranks 52nd in the nation and in their 5-game losing streak they have given up an average of almost 32 points per game.
Last week Kansas lost to Nebraska 31-17 while Texas laid a beat-down on Baylor 47-14.
In their loss to Nebraska this last Saturday, which was in Kansas no less, the Jayhawks were solid in passing the ball, but they simply could not stop the run. In the game Nebraska rushed for 214 yards averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Kansas’ D really let them down in the 4th quarter allowing Nebraska to score 18 points. The Jayhawks were underdogs by 4.5 points so they did not cover the spread and the posted to total for the game of 43 was surpassed.
In their ripping of Baylor in their last game Baylor actually had more passing yards, but other than that the Longhorns dominated the game out-rushing the Bears 224-6 and they averaged 6.4 yards per rush. The Texas D was solid only allowing the Bears to pick up an average of 0.2 yards per carry. Even though Baylor did have 240 passing yards they did throw 3 interceptions. Baylor picked up most of their yards in garbage time, as the Longhorns already were up 47-0 before Baylor scored a couple of 4th quarter TD’s. The Longhorns were favored by 24 points so they covered the spread and the posted total of 51 was surpassed.
The Jayhawks are actually averaging more yards per game and passing yards per game than the Longhorns, but they padded their stats with a weak early season schedule.
The Kansas D will have to contain Colt McCoy and a Texas offense that ranks 3rd in the nation in scoring.
Since the Kansas rushing offense only ranks 88th in the nation QB Todd Reesing will have to have huge numbers in this game. That will not be easy against a Texas’ D that ranks #1 in the nation. However, even though the Longhorns are awesome at stopping the run they are giving up an average of 182 passing yards per game.
The Kansas offensive line has to give Reesing time to find his targets and they will be facing a Longhorns’ front line D that ranks 15th in the nation with 28 sacks. Too bad for the Jayhawks that they only rank 78th in the nation having given up 24 sacks this season.
Kansas does have 27 sacks this season, which ranks 10th in the nation, and they will have to pressure McCoy since the Jayhawks’ secondary only ranks 69th in the nation on pass defense giving up an average of 224 yards per game through the air.
The Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and are only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The Longhorns are only 1-5-1 in their last 7 home games and in 9 of Texas’ last 13 games the total has gone Under.
Jason’s Pick: The Longhorns are on their way to play in the BCS title game while the Jayhawks are reeling and have not won since October 10th. The Kansas D simply does not have the players to contain the Longhorns’ offensive weapons. Reesing is Kansas’ only chance and even if he has a HUGE game it still may not be enough. Texas has had their problems covering the big spread this season and even though they will easily win this game that trend will continue. Take Kansas and the points in this game.