Kansas State Wildcats (5-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (4-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS), 7:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, October 31, 2009, Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, Okla. TV: FSN
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Kansas State +25.5/Oklahoma -25.5
Sam Bradford is done for the season, but Oklahoma finally has some hope after getting a 35-13 win at Kansas. The Sooners have three losses by a combined five points and could easily be 7-0, even without Bradford. But instead, they’re 4-3 and fighting to stay above .500 when they host Kansas State.
After losing 16-13 to Texas and losing Bradford for the second time this season, this time indefinitely, the Sooners lost hope. But they bounced back nicely with an easy win at Kansas. Now that they have the confidence that they can win against good teams, they have a chance to finish the season strong.
Running back DeMarco Murray missed the Kansas game with an ankle injury, but he should be able to play against Kansas State. Without Murray, Chris Brown filled in and carried the ball 22 times for 66 yards, two rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown. Quarterback Landry Jones threw for 252 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Almost half of his completions went to Ryan Broyles, who had 11 receptions for 121 yards. The Sooners intercepted Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing three times.
The Oklahoma defense has allowed just seven points in three home games this season. They’ve outscored Idaho State, Tulsa and Baylor, 142-7. The Sooners have allowed the third fewest rushing yards per game in the country (70.1) and the second fewest yards per carry (2.2). They’ve allowed just one rushing touchdown all season long, and that was a rushing touchdown by Reesing on Saturday.
Kansas State is on a two-game winning streak after defeating Texas A&M and Colorado. The Wildcats went on an extreme swing, by losing 66-14 to Texas Tech and then winning 62-14 over Texas A&M the next week. They evened out by winning in normal fashion, 20-6 over Colorado, a team that was coming off a big win over Kansas. The Wildcats struggled early in the season, when they barely got by UMass, 21-17, and then lost two in a row to Louisiana-Lafayette and UCLA.
In the blowout loss to Texas Tech, the Wildcats couldn’t get too much going on offense, passing for 168 yards and running for 116 yards. But the reason for the blowout was their pass defense. The Wildcats gave up 554 passing yards and passing touchdowns. Those are just unbelievable numbers.
In the blowout win over Texas A&M, the Wildcats still gave up 314 passing yards, not a low number. But they intercepted the ball three times. The real difference was in the running game. The Wildcats ran for 240 yards and allowed -13 yards by the Aggies. In all, the Wildcats forced five turnovers and none of their own.
The key to the Kansas State offense is running back Daniel Thomas,
who has 814 rushing yards, 205 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this
Kansas State didn’t even pass for 200 yards in either of its last two games. The key for KSU on offense will be to establish a running game and try to keep the Oklahoma offense off the field. But the Sooners have one of the best run defenses in the country, so it’s unlikely that KSU will accomplish much on the ground. The Wildcats will have to try to contain the Sooners passing game if they want to have a chance, but they haven’t proven that they are capable of doing so.
Oklahoma has won six of the last seven matchups with Kansas State. The last five games for the Sooners have gone under. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and 1-6 SU in its last seven road games. The total has gone over in 16 of KSU’s last 24 road games.
Ryno’s Pick: Oklahoma was able to defeat Kansas, a nationally ranked team, by 22 points on the road. Therefore, the Sooners should be able to win by more than that at home against a weaker Kansas State team. Jones should be able to throw the ball all over the Wildcats. And it doesn’t look like KSU will move the ball much against the stingy Oklahoma defense that has only allowed seven points in three home games this season. There’s a good chance KSU won’t reach 10 points. The Sooners have scored at least 33 points in each home game this season, and they should be able to score at least that in this game. Take Oklahoma -25.5.