Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Pick 10/19/19

by | Oct 17, 2019 | cfb

Kentucky Wildcats (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)
When: Saturday, October 19th, 2019 – 6:00 PM ET
Where: Sanford Stadium – Athens, GA

Point Spread: UK +24.5 / UGA -24.5 (BetNow)
Total: Off

Power Ratings: Georgia -21

Takeaways From Week Seven

The Wildcats come into this contest on a high note after they snapped a three-game skid with a win at home against Arkansas last Saturday. Closing as a 3.5-point favorite, UK marched onto a 24-20 win against the Hogs.

The Bulldogs come into this game on the heels of what may have been the most embarrassing loss of the 2019 season for any team and one of the worst upsets in Bulldog history when they fell at home last Saturday to visiting South Carolina. Opening as a 24.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks, the Dawgs fell in double overtime by a score of 20-17, ending Georgia’s 15-game division winning streak.

How the Public is Betting The Georgia-Kentucky Game

The public is siding with the Dawgs with nearly two-thirds of the action. Likewise, for the total with 70% on the OVER, but little to no line movement on either the point spread line or the total line.

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The Historicals

Georgia and Kentucky last met in Lexington in 2018 in a game that determined the winner of the SEC East. The winner of that affair was the Red and Black, who marched onto a 34-17 win over Big Blue, covering easily as a 9.5-point favorite.

Injury Concerns

Two key injury concerns are resting with the Bulldog Nation as they head into this SEC East bout. Wide Receiver Laurence Cager is listed as questionable as he left the South Carolina game with a rib injury. Emotional leader and senior Running Back Brian Herrien is also questionable as he battles back spasms. Should they both be unavailable, the Dawgs have plenty of talent in their receiver corps and running back depth to supplement their absence, most notably Wide Receivers Georgia Pickens and Demetris Robertson along with Running Back Zamir White who have all scored multiple touchdowns for the Dawgs this season.

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Betting Trends

The Dawgs have covered in the last six meetings between these two sides. In all six of these contests, UGA was also favored.

Why We Like The Dawgs To Cover

In the Kirby Smart era, the Dawgs have responded from losses with style. In 2017, Georgia would run all the way to the National Championship Game after it was embarrassed by rival Auburn in its sole loss that season. UGA, of course, would avenge the defeat a few weeks later in the SEC Championship and punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff. Last year, Georgia was handled on the road in Death Valley against the LSU Tigers to suffer its first loss of the season. UGA would continue from there and ravage the likes of Florida, these Kentucky Wildcats, and Auburn en route to their second consecutive SEC Championship appearance. Obviously, this loss has a bit of a different feel to it as it has made the Bulldogs the subject of a lot of jokes and jeers this week in what was simply an ugly loss. However, I expect Coach Smart to circle the wagons and get the Dawgs right back on track. After all, UGA’s defense was stellar against USC. The deciding factor for the game was Bulldogs committing four turnovers to South Carolina’s zero. I anticipate the Dawgs will clean that up, and we will see a much hungrier and ferocious team compared to weeks past. Many have commented that the Dawgs were playing like they were afraid to lose. This may indeed be true, but now Georgia will undoubtedly be playing to win as it cannot afford to lose again if it wishes to return to games of consequence in December and January.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -24.5

Georgia Quarterback Jake Fromm threw the ball over 50 times in their loss against South Carolina last week. It is worth annotating that when Fromm throws more than 30 times in a game, the Dawgs have never won. UGA will go back to its bread and butter this week to set the ship straight and implement a steady dose of the run against the Wildcats. Situationally, the Dawgs should feast against this 81st-ranked Kentucky rushing defense that gives up a friendly 173.2 yards per game. Once Georgia has established the run, their offense will fire on all cylinders, and Fromm will have better looks in the passing game. On the flip-side, Georgia’s ferocious defense will beat up Kentucky and further mitigate their sputter-and-stall offense, which averages a 99th-ranked 23.5 points per game. Georgia will make an example out of Kentucky to show the college football world that last week’s result was merely a hiccup. Dawgs win this one huge.