Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers Week 9 Analysis & Point Spread Pick
No. 19 Kentucky Wildcats (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday October 29th, 2022. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Neyland Stadium Knoxville, TN
Point Spread: UK +12.5/UT -12.5
Moneyline: UK +375/UT -490
The Tennessee Volunteers Volunteers will attempt to keep their Cinderella campaign alive this Saturday when they host the no. 19 Kentucky Wildcats on Rocky Top at Neyland Stadium. Fresh off their 52-49 defeat over No. 3 Alabama, which sent shockwaves throughout the college football landscape, the Volunteers received a much easier challenge in last week’s 65-24 victory over Tennessee-Martin, which also resulted in covering the 39-point betting spread. This week, the Vols return to conference play, and Kentucky is the next team that will attempt to derail Tennessee’s unbeaten season.
After dropping two straight losses to Ole Miss and South Carolina, the Wildcats got back into the win column with a 27-17 victory over no. 16 Mississippi State two weeks ago. Most recently, the Wildcats enjoyed some needed rest time from their off week, and that is important considering the recent health concerns of QB Will Levis and WR Tayvion Robinson. Luckily, the Wildcats are expected to be at full strength this Saturday and will look to improve on their 5-2 mark against the spread. Kentucky has covered in all three games as an underdog this season and will be getting a generous 12.5 point betting margin for this Saturday’s showdown on Rocky Top.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Analysis
In many ways, Saturday’s showdown between the Wildcats and Volunteers is a clash of styles of football. The Volunteers have enjoyed a breakout season behind the play of QB Hendon Hooker and an electrifying offense. Hooker has completed 70% passing for 2,000 yards with 18 touchdowns and just one pick. WR Jalin Hyatt has quickly become one of the most feared pass-catchers in the country and leads all receivers with 12 touchdowns on the season. Overall, Tennessee’s offense is exuding with talent at the skill positions, and they run a fast-striking of play that leans on the run game to open things up down the field.
The clash of styles provides an intriguing disparity this weekend. If the Wildcats are able to run the football effectively and limit the number of possessions for the Vols offense, I think the Kentucky defense may surprise some people in this match-up. Unfortunately for Kentucky, Tennessee has been good against the run allowing just 90 yards per game on the ground. The Vols will have a size advantage up front, and if they can stymie the run-game, then I don’t think the Wildcats have the offense to contend with the Vols in a higher-scoring affair.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Trends
- Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games
- Kentucky is 9-2 SU in the last 11 games
- Kentucky has hit the “under” in six of the last eight games on the road
- Kentucky is just 1-12 SU in the last 13 games on the road at Tennessee
- Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games
- Tennessee has hit the “over” in 11 of the last 13 games
- Tennessee has hit the “over” in each of the last five games at home
- Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in the last ten games against Kentucky
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Prediction
This may not be a popular selection, but I believe the Volunteers’ offense influences this total more than it should. The Wildcats are a team that likes to limit their opponents’ possessions, and that rarely leads to high-scoring games. In fact, the Wildcats’ largest scoring total this season is just 54 points. Therefore, I think there is considerable value in betting the “Under” in this match-up!
Jay’s Pick: Take the under 63.5