No. 2 Kansas State Wildcats (9-0 SU, 7-1-1 ATS) vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Saturday November 10th, 2012. 7:00PM Eastern
Where: Amon G Carter Stadium Fort Worth, T.X.
TV: FOX
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KSU -7.5/TCU +7.5
Over/Under Total: 60.5
Last week the Kansas State Wildcats took down their 3rd straight top 25 opponent with a 44-30 victory over Oklahoma State and moved to no. 2 in the BCS standings. The win not only moved Kansas St. to a remarkable 9-0 mark on the season but it hinted the very realistic possibility that Bill Snyder’s Wildcats could be destined for the BCS National Championship Game if they can win out. However, Kansas State still has a few challenges left on the schedule with possibly the biggest coming this Saturday on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Texas Christian Horned Frogs snapped a two game losing skid last week with a respectable double overtime victory over West Virginia. Still, this has been a down year in terms of the type of expectations Coach Gary Patterson has placed in Fort Worth over the past several seasons. The 6-3 SU Horned Frogs have had 4 straight 10 plus win campaigns but that streak looks like it may come to an end. However, TCU could still go out with a bang if they could score the huge upset this Saturday against the Wildcats.
If the Horned Frogs are going to pull off the victory, the TCU defense will have to find an answer for QB Collin Klein. Klein is the ultimate dual threat quarterback that is putting up Heisman type numbers with his arm and feet. Klein has completed a solid 71% passing on the year for 1,875 yards with 12 touchdowns and just 2 picks. Klein also has the team’s 2nd highest total in rushing with 698 yards on the year and 17 rushing touchdowns (3rd in FBS). As a team, Kansas State inflicts most of their damage on the ground averaging 224 rushing yards per game. Running back John Hubert leads the team with 760 yards with 12 touchdowns and is a guy that the Horned Frogs defense will have to stop.
However, Klein is still the ultimate predator for the Wildcats offense and he has played superb against some talented defenses this year. Kansas State not only owns the nation’s 5th best scoring offense averaging 44 points per game but the Wildcats typically control the time of possession battle with their strong running game. For TCU to contend, the defense will have to make some stops up front. The Horned Frogs have been very strong against the run giving up just 95 yards per game (8th in FBS). Therefore, it will be extremely important to see who wins the battle up front when Kansas State has the football.
Offensively, TCU has posted solid numbers averaging 426 total yards (47th in FBS) and 33points per game (39th in FBS). However, the offense is missing that true superstar player to lead the offense. QB Trevone Boykin has struggled in his freshman season completing just 58% passing for 1,376 yards with 13 touchdowns and 7 picks. Not only have there been struggles in the passing game but TCU has also found it difficult to move the football on the ground this year which is very uncommon for a Gary Patterson football team. The Horned Frogs leading rusher in freshman tailback B.J Catalon has just 401 yards on the entire season. While the offense is young and talented, TCU needs playmakers to emerge immediately to get the offense back to top form.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Kansas State’s defense has not received the credit they deserve this season but they have played extremely well. The Wildcats defense should be able to stifle a rather average TCU offense. Additionally I think the way both teams match-up with solid defense and favored running offenses, that this game will be a low scoring grudge match especially early. Therefore I am putting a strong play on the under 60.5. Consider this parting stat; Kansas State’s totals have gone under the mark in all 5 of their last 5 road games. Take the under 60.5!
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