Lay the Huge Spread: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Pick

by | Last updated Nov 11, 2022 | cfb

Indiana Hoosiers (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 12, Noon

Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

TV: Fox

Point Spread: IND +40.5/OHST -40.5 (Make Ohio St. -20.5 by placing them into a MASSIVE 20 point college football teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Total: O/U 57.5


The last time these teams met in Columbus, Indiana had a shot at winning the Big Ten East and was clearly the second-best team in the Big Ten. That was just two years ago but seems like forever, given the direction the Hoosiers have trended since then. Indiana has now dropped five straight, haven’t won a Big Ten game since upsetting Illinois on opening night, and just got pasted by Penn State in a game that wasn’t really as close as the 45-14 final indicated.

Ohio State has appeared to be in full sleepwalk mode ever since the Iowa win. The Buckeyes woke up enough to finish off Penn State in the fourth quarter, but they didn’t look good at all against a bad Northwestern team. There’s little reason for Ohio State to be concerned at all against Indiana, but the remaining two games could be more of a problem. The Buckeyes close with a decent Maryland team before the Big Game with Michigan, which means this is little more than a speed bump for them. The question is, will Ohio State use this game to make a statement, or will it be another languid performance for a team that badly needs to step up its game before facing Maryland and Michigan?

How the Public is Betting the Indiana/Ohio State Game

Have anybody give 40 points or more, and you’ll get money on the other side. The public has put 64% of tickets on Indiana, and the money has driven the Buckeyes down from -41 to -40.5, with the total slipping to 57.5.

Injury Concerns


Linebacker Cam Jones (foot), quarterback Jack Tuttle (arm), and quarterback Connor Bazelak (undisclosed) are questionable. Wide receiver Cam Camper (knee), wide receiver David Baker (undisclosed), wide receiver Jaquez Smith (undisclosed), tight end Ryan Miller (undisclosed), and offensive lineman Matthew Bedford (knee) are out.

Ohio State:

Cornerback Lloyd McFarquhar (undisclosed), wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hamstring), and running back TreVeyon Henderson (foot) are questionable. Tight end Joe Royer (undisclosed), wide receiver Kamryn Babb (knee), running back Evan Pryor (knee), and linebacker Mitchell Melton (knee) are out.

When Indiana Has the Ball

The way the Hoosiers played against Penn State, it would be rather miraculous if they won any games at all the rest of the way. Jack Tuttle played well when he was in the game against Penn State, but he went out with an arm injury in the second quarter, and the rest of the game was “shield your children’s eyes” ugly for the Hoosiers. Of the other two quarterbacks tried, Dexter Williams was a little better than Brendan Sorsby, but neither was effective, as Penn State both had an express lane to the quarterback and picked off three passes.

The simple fact is that Indiana has no running game and not much of an offensive line, which is a rather bad sign for a team that needs to handle Big Ten weather in November. Connor Bazelak is supposed to be healthy enough to play in Columbus, but Indiana’s offense wasn’t that good with him on the field. Against Ohio State’s defense, it’s hard to see the Hoosiers doing much of anything.

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When Ohio State Has the Ball

This feels more like Ohio State going up against an FCS team as opposed to trying to get a win in the Big Ten. Indiana just doesn’t have the defense needed to challenge C.J. Stroud, and the way Penn State ran over the Hoosiers makes it clear that the Buckeyes will be able to do whatever they want as long as they play interested.

But does Ohio State care about anything but the Michigan game right now? The Buckeyes wrote it off as playing in windy and rainy conditions last week at Northwestern, but they also took three quarters to get started in better conditions at Penn State. In a game like this, Ohio State will need to be interested for three quarters before pulling starters in order to hit the number. If the Buckeyes slack off early, this won’t work.

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Betting Trends

If you’ve wondered why Tom Allen’s seat is getting warm in Bloomington, here’s why: Indiana finishes poorly and doesn’t do well on the road. Allen’s hardly the first Hoosier coach to struggle at Ohio State — Indiana hasn’t won in Columbus since 1987, and that’s their only win in Columbus in the past 70 years — but the Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS on the road and 0-5 ATS in their past five November games.

That said, the Hoosiers have covered in six straight against Ohio State in Columbus, as the number is often so absurdly high that Ohio State has to do everything right for four quarters to hit it. The over has also cashed in five straight matchups in the series.

Weather Report

By Saturday, the rain in Ohio from Friday will be gone. Temperatures will hit 44 degrees at kickoff, with nine-mile-per-hour winds to the west and gusts up to 20 miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Ohio State hasn’t looked good in the past two weeks, but Indiana is just horrendous. The Hoosiers have no signs that anything will go well in their final three games, and their quarterback and offensive line are just a mess.

This is a ton of points, but Indiana looks like something that was killed crossing the street right now. Give me the Buckeyes. Bet your Week 11 college football games for FREE by scoring a 125% real cash bonus up to $400 AND get a FREE half point everytime you bet your favorite college/pro team simply by using bonus code PREDICTEM when you sign up for a betting account at GTBets Sportsbook! It’s the best bonus/promo on the web!