Lay the Points: Ohio State vs. Indiana Week 1 Pick

Ohio State Buckeyes (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 3:30PM EDT

Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana

TV: CBS

Point Spread: OSU -28/IU +28 (Bovada – 75% Bitcoin Bonus! 50% Credit Card Bonus!)

Over/Under Total: 59.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes come to Bloomington in week one for a season-opening Big Ten battle against the Indiana Hoosiers. It’s a daunting task for the home Hoosiers, winners of 4 games last season, taking on the third-leading choice on the odds board to win the College Football Playoffs this season. Ohio State is coming off an 11-2 season, with the hopes again high for this season. And while Indiana head coach Tom Allen doubled the previous season’s win-total last year, he will be facing a herculean task going against Ryan Day’s squad, with the Ohio State head coach having gone 45-6 in 4+ seasons at the helm.

Bleak Outlook for Indiana?

Granted, the Buckeyes have been playing well the last two seasons, with consecutive 11-2 years, and this hasn’t been the best incarnation of the Hoosiers we’ve ever seen the last few years. But with Ohio State entering 2023 looming near the top of the list of championship contenders, it seems like a weird time for Indiana to be the same thorn in the side of the Buckeyes that we previously saw on occasion in past years. Coming off a 56-14 thumping last season and a 54-7 rout the season before in this stadium, Indiana is going to need a serious turn in their fortunes to threaten that +28 spread.

Any Silver Lining for Indiana?

It’s not going to be easy to find any optimism for Indiana, and when your hopes are tied up with the other team, it doesn’t bode well. Ohio State loses star QB CJ Stroud. Combine that with how they haven’t performed that great on the road, maybe Indiana catches an Ohio State team that isn’t quite ready to explode out of the gate for the 2023 season. Couple the new quarterback with an offensive line that faces some personnel turnover, and maybe Indiana has more reasons why they can hang in there. It might be hard for those who backed Indiana in this spot last season, where they didn’t cover despite getting 40 points.

The Harsh Reality of the Situation

While Stroud being gone and that line taking a possible step back could end up costing Ohio State, what will Indiana realistically be able to do about it? Despite a semi-surge last season in spots, they are toward the bottom of the FBS in returning production. Their offense will have a ton of fresh faces that will be thrown to a Jim Knowles-led Buckeyes defense that returns relatively intact and figures to be a big part of this team’s success. This season, not many offenses that oppose this Ohio St. defense will have success, and Indiana faces the prospect of really being shut down in this spot—not dissimilar to how they’ve scored so little the last few years against an Ohio St. defense that probably wasn’t this good.

As of press time, there’s an ongoing QB battle with the Buckeyes between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown. It’s hard to imagine whoever it is not being good. First, Ryan Day isn’t going to have scrubs lying in wait for Stroud to depart. These are blue chippers. And whoever it is will be stepping into one of the more-advantageous spots available for a quarterback. That’s also true for just this week. One of the reasons Indiana coach Tom Allen is on the hot seat is that for a defensive specialist, these Indiana defenses haven’t been that special. If you subscribe to the notion that losing most of the pieces from a bad defense maybe isn’t the worst thing, then maybe there’s hope for this Indiana “D.” But the talent seems to just not be there and nothing done in recruiting or the transfer portal changed that perspective. Ohio State has perhaps the best wide receiver package in all of college football, led by Marvin Harrison, Jr., along with two impactful backs in Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. Any real answers for this Hoosiers defense don’t immediately suggest themselves.

Is a Blowout on the Table?

Tom Allen said he won’t name a starter until late, but this is not a mystery with a big payoff at the end, as the QB situation figures to be abysmal. They’ve lost every source of production, and those coming in fail to inspire. It’s almost as if Allen and this program hit a wall after their 6-2 spurt in the Covid season. Allen’s defensive emphasis doesn’t have the necessary horses behind it for it to compete in the Big Ten, and he doesn’t have that visionary coordinator to bridge the gap on the other side of the ball. While last season was awful in stretches, they masked it with the occasional spurt here and there. I think there’s a chance we’ll see things start to come apart more at the seams this season. Going against an Ohio State offense with something to prove with fresh legs in week one, there’s a chance this could get ugly.

Lay the Points on the Road Team

Laying this many points on the road in conference is never a comfortable feeling, particularly in week one when things are up in the air. But even if the Buckeyes have shortcomings that will negate a title run this year, it won’t show in this game. And there are a lot of things other than QB play that will get the job done in Bloomington, namely a stifling defense that looks to put the same kind of hurt on this Hoosiers’ defense that we’ve seen the last few years. With fresh backs and a slew of WRs running loose, the prudent move seems to take the leap of faith on the Buckeyes and forecast a thorough beating. I’m taking Ohio State.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus 28 points.

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