Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks Pick 1/6/20

by | Jan 6, 2020 | cfb

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) vs. Miami-Ohio RedHawks (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

When: Monday, January 6, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Ala.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ULL -14/M-OH +14 (Betnow - Deposit $200 and get a $100 FREE Bet!)

Total: O/U 54.5

Outlook

The NFL playoffs are underway, the holiday season is over, and you’re ready for what should be a classic between Clemson and LSU to decide the college football national championship. But there’s still one more bowl game to play before that, and it’s an intriguing one. Louisiana has been the second-best team in the Sun Belt for the past two seasons, but the Cajuns just haven’t been able to get over the hump that is Appalachian State. Over the past two seasons, Louisiana has gone 17-10, and seven of those losses have been to three schools: four to Appalachian State, two to Mississippi State, and once to Alabama. Of the other three losses, one was last year’s bowl game against Tulane, which serves as a major motivator for this year’s Cajun squad.

The RedHawks have a big motivator themselves: they didn’t play anywhere in the postseason last year. Miami-Ohio went 6-6, which puts you on the bubble of getting in, and there wasn’t a spot available for them when all was said and done. The RedHawks were the surprise winner of the MAC after beating Central Michigan, and they’ll be trying to help the conference earn a winning record in the bowl season after their league mates went 3-3 so far in bowls. Louisiana will also be trying to get its league a winning record, as the Sun Belt sits 2-2 in the bowls.

How the Public is Betting the Louisiana/Miami-Ohio Game

The total has dropped a point since the game opened, falling to 54.5 points from the opening total of 55.5. There has been no change from the opening line.

Get all of our handicapper’s Divsional Round NFL Picks Against the Spread as they become available.

Injury Concerns

Louisiana:
Wide receiver Jamal Bell is questionable with a foot injury, as is defensive tackle Zi’Yon Hill with a shoulder issue. Tight end Johnny Lumpkin (shoulder), offensive lineman Ken Marks (knee), and linebacker Tanner Wiggins (ACL tear) are all out.

Miami-Ohio:
The RedHawks report no injuries.

When Louisiana Has the Ball

As long as the opponent isn’t Appalachian State, the Cajuns can put up points. They’ll do it through the air with Levi Lewis, who completed 63 percent of his passes and threw for 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions. They’ll do it on the ground with their stable of running backs, as Elijah Mitchell, Raymond Calais, and Trey Ragas combined to score 32 rushing touchdowns this season and gained over 2,500 yards between the three of them. When they go to the air, they’re tough to stop because Lewis likes to spread the ball out to a lot of different targets. Ja’Marcus Bradley is his favorite target with 818 yards and eight touchdowns, but 11 different Cajuns caught at least one touchdown pass this season. This squad can score in a hurry, and they’ve only been held under 30 points twice all year: against Mississippi State and Appalachian State, the two teams that they’ve struggled most against. But Mississippi State is an SEC foe, and Louisiana still managed to score 28 on the Bulldogs. Appalachian State might have stopped the Cajuns cold in the first meeting, but Louisiana hung 38 on Appalachian State the second time.

When Miami-Ohio Has the Ball

When the RedHawks have the ball, nobody will blame you for seeing what’s on Food Network instead. Brett Gabbert has failed to top 200 passing yards in nine of Miami-Ohio’s 12 games this season, and the running of Jaylon Bester and Tyre Shelton isn’t going to scare anyone. The RedHawks get a large chunk of their scoring from the work of their defense and special teams either giving them short fields or just scoring themselves and taking the middle man out of the equation completely. Gabbert has only 11 touchdowns this year, and Bester has averaged a mere 4.5 yards per carry this season. There really isn’t much to get excited about with the second-worst offense in the MAC.

Betting Trends

 

When the Cajuns are expected to win, that’s usually exactly what they do. Louisiana has covered in 10 of its last 14 games as a favorite, and they’ve been perfect against the spread outside of Sun Belt play this season. In fact, over the past two years, Louisiana has been an excellent bet, as the Cajuns have covered in 17 of their previous 24 games. However, Miami-Ohio thrives as an underdog, having covered the spread in four of their past five when getting points. But that’s only inside the MAC that Miami-Ohio really steps up, as the RedHawks are a mere 2-10 ATS in their previous 12 outside the league.

The Cajuns might be a high-scoring team, but because they’re so high scoring, the total often gets set too high for bettors to make money on them. The under has covered in six of the past eight Cajuns’ games. That fits well for Miami-Ohio, which has seen the under hit in five of six.

Weather Report

With a 66 degree evening and a partly cloudy sky, the weather really couldn’t be much better for a January football game.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Miami-Ohio has been fortunate to get to this game. The RedHawks didn’t look good when plating out of the conference, and they took advantage of a weak MAC schedule to land their trip to the conference title game. Louisiana has been proving itself for two years and is set up well to earn a bowl victory and make up for last year’s difficult experience.

It’s a high spread, but I think the Cajuns can handle it. Give me Louisiana. Did you know that you can bet college football games, NFL games, hoops and MLB at reduced odds? Not just a few games… EVERY SINGLE GAME! You are laying -110 odds on your bets. You can lay -105 at 5Dimes. Stop overpaying, start saving big money by spending a few measley minutes making the switch now! It’s the best thing you’ll have ever done for yourself with regards to betting! Click here to start betting cheaper and smarter!