Louisville Cardinals (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date and Time: Saturday, September 14, 12:00pm
Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, KY
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: LOU -15.5/KEN +15.5
Over/Under Total: 60.5
We have a great in-state rivalry coming up this weekend when the Cardinals from Louisville travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats. These teams appear to be headed to totally opposite directions as programs, but when you are talking about a rivalry, anything can happen. This rivalry dates back to the year 1912, and currently, Kentucky leads the series 14-11 but after a virtual 70 year layoff from this contest, the Cardinals have won 11 of the 19 games played between the two schools. Kentucky comes in as the big home underdog in this game. The Cardinals are favored by 15 points as we speak, and the way all the action seems to be going, I wouldn’t be surprised if this line doesn’t shoot up to 17 points by kickoff this Saturday.
The Louisville Cardinals are in a very tough spot this season. We are looking at a team that could easily go undefeated and not get a shot at a national title. This is due to an extremely weak schedule. With that said, have we not forgot the smack down this very same team put on the Florida Gators in last year’s Sugar Bowl? The Gators came in with just one loss on the season and were manhandled as if they were the team that belonged in Conference USA, or whatever tiny conference the Cards are from. Led by Heisman candidate, Teddy Bridgewater, the Cardinals offense clicks on all cylinders, at all times. Not only does the offense put up numbers, but head coach Charlie Strong is a stickler for good, disciplined defensive play. Louisville is coming into every game this season with one goal, blowout. If they are going to reach the BCS Title game that they think they can actually win, it will take some style points along the way…and what better way to get that going, than to spank their instate rival from the almighty SEC.
Well I just praised the Cardinals of Louisville, so let me take a second to tell you all the great things about the Kentucky Wildcats……well, they have a great basketball program. The End. Let’s be real, Kentucky flat out stinks. They are in no way a good representative of the SEC. Kentucky is like the drunk, jobless cousin of Bill Gates. He boasts the family name, but really doesn’t contribute at all, meanwhile the rest of the family doesn’t even claim him to others. Yea, that’s Kentucky to the SEC. Kentucky is coming off a win, yes, but they opened up the season with a loss to the small school of Western Kentucky; which is the Wildcats second loss to them in as many years. Under new coach, Mark Stoops, I do believe that Kentucky will eventually take the steps to again be competitive, but it is going to take some time, and that time is not now. But here is my take on this whole thing: With all the negatives I just stated about Kentucky, I really believe they have a shot to win this game. Why? I have no idea, it is just that gut feeling. That feeling where anything can happen and that feeling that Kentucky is due to do something good for a change. A win for the ‘Cats would be a great way to get the Stoops era going in Lexington.
Like I stated earlier, this line sits at 15 points in favor of Louisville and the public keeps pounding the Cardinals. I have been snooping around some of the Vegas insider sites as well as other gambling forums and there is one site where over 84% of the bettors betting the spread has their action on the Cardinals. This is just a bit ridiculous for me. In-state rivalry game, one team from a power conference, and they are picked to lose by 15??? Little odd. I think this is the Vegas bait. People are jumping all over the Cardinals, but I warn you, be very cautious.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am torn on this game like you wouldn’t believe. Like I said, my gut says Kentucky has a shot to win this thing, but do they really? Or am I just putting too much stock into that whole SEC thing? I did a little digging and I did find a couple of stats that stick out to me. 1) The road team has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and 2) any team in this game favored by 10+, has covered the spread and in most cases with easy. Those two stats stick out, and that’s what I am rolling with. I don’t think the Cardinals lose all season, and Teddy Bridgewater certainly will not have an issue against this Kentucky defense. Louisville wins this one 41-23. LOUISVILLE -15.5
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