Louisville vs. Georgia Tech Pick ATS 10/9/20

by | Oct 8, 2020 | cfb

Louisville Cardinals (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

When: Friday, October 9, 7 p.m.

Where: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta


Point Spread: LOU -4/GT +4 (BetNow: 100% Bonus up to $500 THIS WEEKEND!)

Total: O/U 64


Two 1-2 squads try to get themselves off the mat and back into the race for a mid-table finish in the ACC, as Louisville plays its second consecutive road game by visiting Georgia Tech. So far, these teams have both been plagued by mistakes with the football, as Louisville has turned it over eight times in three games, and Georgia Tech has 12 in the same stretch. Things get no easier in Atlanta, as weather forecasts suggest a driving rain and windy conditions when these teams take the field.

When they can hold on to the football, both have been excellent at moving the ball, as both teams average more than 400 yards per game so far in this young season. Both teams clearly have the potential to be great offenses, but which one can get out of its own way long enough to get a win here?

How the Public is Betting the Louisville/Georgia Tech Game

The line has dropped two points toward Georgia Tech, falling from Louisville -6 to the current -4. The totals are unchanged since the game went on the board.

Injury Concerns

Quarterback Malik Cunningham is probable with a head injury. Quarterback Jawon Pass is questionable because of personal reasons.

Georgia Tech:
Defensive lineman T.K. Chimedza is out for the season with an undisclosed issue. Defensive back Tre Swilling (undisclosed), running back Jordan Mason (undisclosed), tight end Dylan Leonard (undisclosed), tight end Dylan Deveney (undisclosed), and defensive lineman Sylvain Yondjouen (lower body) are all questionable.

When Louisville Has the Ball

Giving the ball to Javian Hawkins is usually a winning strategy for Louisville, as the redshirt sophomore has averaged more than 100 yards per game in 2020. Against Miami, he played a large role in keeping the Cardinals in the ball game, gaining 164 yards in that contest. If you could bet on individual players to score, Hawkins would be a great bet, as he’s now scored in six consecutive games dating back to last year.

However, the key to Louisville’s offense is for Malik Cunningham to take better care of the football. Five interceptions in three games is not going to cut it, especially against a defense that creates as many opportunities as Georgia Tech has this year. To be completely fair, part of that was because the Yellow Jackets got to play the dumpster fire that is Florida State, but Georgia Tech has forced six turnovers and can punish the Cardinals if Cunningham continues to make mistakes.

To take control of this game, Cunningham needs to find Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick, both of whom have established themselves as reliable pass-catchers and significant parts of the offense. In particular, Atwell needs to be part of the offense, as he only caught four passes in the loss to Pittsburgh.

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When Georgia Tech Has the Ball

The transition away from the triple-option continues for Georgia Tech, and it’s proving to be far from an easy change. On the one hand, the Yellow Jackets can still run the ball quite well, as Jahmyr Gibbs showed when he gashed Syracuse for 105 yards in Tech’s most recent game. On the other, Jeff Sims is really struggling through growing pains at quarterback. Against the Orange, Sims tossed four interceptions and almost single-handedly took the Yellow Jackets out of the contest.

The biggest problem for Tech is that it has been its own worst enemy this season. For the year, the Jackets have averaged four turnovers a game, hardly the way to establish a new offense. Tech already has a hard enough time developing an offense that gets away from the triple option, and having to play as a run-first team where Sims is the top rushing threat is anything but the way that Geoff Collins wants to play. Being run-first might not be the way to play against Louisville anyway, because the Cardinals were able to bottle up Pittsburgh’s ground game two weeks ago. In that game, the Panthers didn’t have a runner break 50 yards and ended up getting just 3.9 yards a carry. If Georgia Tech has similar numbers, this won’t end well.

Betting Trends

There’s minimal history between these teams, as Louisville has only been part of the ACC since 2014. Despite Georgia Tech being the third-nearest ACC member in football (only Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh are closer) to Louisville, the schools have only met once in their history, a 66-24 Georgia Tech rout in 2018. So we’ll look at the history of the teams themselves, and history says that Louisville tends to be pretty good when it’s expected to win. The Cardinals have covered in five of their past six contests when favored, and they’ve cashed in each of their past four road games against a team with a losing home record.

However, there’s one trouble spot for Louisville. The Cardinals have struggled coming off a bye week. They’ve only cashed one in their past six after a bye. However, they’re facing a team that’s been horrendous at home: Georgia Tech has cashed in three of its last 16 home games and has failed to cash in seven of its past eight games as a home underdog. When the Jackets come off a bye week, however, their defense tends to show up in a big way: the under is 16-5 following a Georgia Tech bye week.

Weather Report

Prepare for a wet evening. This could be a nasty night for football, with the remnants of Tropical Storm Delta dropping rain and winds on Georgia’s capital city. Temperatures are expected to be around 75 degrees, with winds of around 11 miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

This line is dropping, and I really do not understand why. We’ve seen nothing to suggest that Georgia Tech is a good football team this year, as the Yellow Jackets didn’t look good against a UCF squad that appears nothing more than average and then got drilled by Syracuse. Even the win over Florida State, who seems to be a disaster this season, saw the Jackets look shaky for a half before they were able to bounce back and take control in the second half.

Contrast that with Louisville. The Cardinals are also 1-2, but it’s a much more robust 1-2. Miami appears to be legitimate as an ACC contender, and Louisville was able to go toe-to-toe with a decent Pittsburgh team. Both the Hurricanes and the Panthers are better than anyone the Yellow Jackets have played this season, and Louisville was able to keep pace with both of them.

Conversely, the Jackets were never in either contest against UCF or Syracuse, and even though they force their share of turnovers, they are far too generous at giving the ball right back to their opponent. I’m quite happy to only give four points with Louisville, and you might even be able to get this line lower with how it’s dropped so far this week. As for the total, I’d like the UNDER. Important Note: Many are bitter that they lost the ability to bet on games at -105 odds after 5Dimes left the U.S.A. market. You actually still can bet at reduced odds though! Same website platfrom and wagering menu… Find the same exact offerings and -105 odds at BetAnySports!