LSU vs. Texas Week 2 Pick ATS

by | Sep 4, 2019 | cfb

No. 6 LSU Tigers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. No. 10 Texas Longhorns (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday September 7th, 2019. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, T.X.
TV: ABC

Point Spread:LSU -4.5/TEX +4.5 (5Dimes)
Over/Under Total: 53

College Gameday will invade Austin, Texas this weekend for a colossal showdown between the no. 6 LSU Tigers and the no. 10 Texas Longhorns. Interestingly, both the Tigers and Longhorns are in similar situations and share the same dynamics. Both teams have budding talent that is on the brink of becoming elite. While LSU is trying to take the next step to challenge Alabama in the SEC West, the Longhorns are attempting to take the next step to challenge Oklahoma in the Big 12. All preseason hype and lofty 2019 expectations will come to a collision point this week in Austin. Unfortunately for Longhorns fans, the program’s ascension will likely be put on hold this week against an LSU team that is more prepared to take that next step.

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LSU is better on both sides of the football

This may be an unpopular opinion, but the Tigers are the best team on both sides of the football. Texas will have the luxury of the home turf, which is always a critical element. However, I don’t think that will be enough to win this football game. On offense, quarterback Joe Burrow may be the best pure passer the Tigers have had in well over a decade. Burrow hit 23 of 27 passes for 278 yards with five touchdowns (0 picks) in last week’s 55-3 victory over Georgia Southern. The offense has tremendous size upfront and skill position stars led by the likes of WR Justin Jefferson and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Unlike previous years, this LSU team is built to not only run the football but thrive in the passing game. These factors are essential because Texas’s defense has already shown struggles. Despite a 45-14 blowout last week over Louisiana Tech, the Longhorns defense was shaky at times giving up big plays in the passing game and over 400 yards of total offense.

However LSU’s biggest advantage will be on the opposing side of the football by virtue of the Tigers’ defense. LSU has elite level speed and extraordinary talent. The defensive line is experienced with great talent, and the defensive secondary is very likely the best in college football led by safety Grant Delpit. I know last week’s win over Georgia Southern was not exactly an ideal measuring stick, but the Tigers relinquished just 98 yards of total offense with only 24 yards of passing. Obviously, the measuring stick will be better this week against Tom Herman’s offense, but I am here to tell everyone; the LSU defense is the real deal, and they will prove it on Saturday.

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Texas QB Sam Ehlinger’s ultimate test

I am not trying to sound like a hater or someone that is throwing out unwarranted criticism. However, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger needs to prove that he can deliver on a consistent basis. Ehlinger has shown flashes of greatness which everyone witnessed in the win over Oklahoma last year. However, there have also been a fair number of setbacks like the performances against Oklahoma State, USC, and Maryland last year. Personally, I am still not convinced that Ehlinger is the quarterback to lead Texas to greater things. More importantly, when you consider the talent and speed that LSU will bring to the table on Saturday; this particular match-up could be Ehlinger’s greatest challenge. If I am wrong, I will be glad to admit it. However, I think the LSU defense will be the story this week, and it will be at Ehlinger’s cost.

LSU vs. Texas betting trends

From a betting standpoint, both LSU and Texas have shown promising trends. The Tigers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games and 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games on the road. Meanwhile, Texas is 4-2 ATS in their last six games and surprisingly 10-2-1 ATS in the previous 13 games as underdogs. In terms of the total, Texas has strongly favored the “under” going below the mark in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, LSU has hit the over in 4 of their last five games.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: LSU -4.5 (live line when predicted)

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