Memphis Tigers at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Prediction ATS
When: Friday, Dec. 24th, 2021, 8:00 pm (ET)
Where: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Point Spread: MEM -7/HAW +7 (Opened at 4.5 at Bovada - Check out their live betting platform! It’s THE BEST!)
Total: 58.5 (Opened at 61)
Money Line: MEM -250/HAW +205
Memphis Tigers: DL John Cartwright *Questionable* (Undisclosed), RB Brandon Thomas *Questionable* (Undisclosed), WR Calvin Austin *Questionable* (Undisclosed), RB Kylan Watkins *Out* (Undisclosed), OL Austin Myers *Out* (Undisclosed), DL Greg Emerson *Out* (Undisclosed), QB Grant Gunnell *Out* (Lower Body)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: No injuries to report.
After a two-game losing streak, the Memphis Tigers ended their 2021 season with a win over Tulane to avoid a losing season at 6-6. At 6-6, Memphis finished 7th in the AAC and became bowl eligible on their final win of the season. The Tigers’ most notable win of the year came over SMU in a 28-25 final. The Memphis total offense finished 37th in FBS with 434.9 YPG and 96th in total defense with 418.2 YPG allowed.
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ended their 2021 season with two straight wins over Colorado State and Wyoming, giving them a 6-7 record. Hawaii’s most notable win of the year came over Fresno State, who, at the time, was ranked No. 18. The Rainbow Warriors were selected to a bowl this season thanks to their sixth win in their final game but will be the only bowl team with a losing record. Despite a losing record, Hawaii has the 63rd ranked offense, averaging 405.0 YPG. Defensively, the team has struggled this season, finding themselves outside the top 100 by allowing 446.0 YPG.
The Tigers Passing Game
Memphis heads into this game with a top 20 passing offense in college football. The Tigers offense is led by freshman QB Seth Henigan, who had over 3,300 yards passing this season and a 147.7 passer rating. Henigan’s favorite target this season was senior wideout Calvin Austin, who had over 1,100 yards receiving. Austin is listed as questionable for this game, so should he not take the field, Henigan will have to utilize other players in the pass-heavy Memphis offense. In this game, the Memphis offense matches up very well against Hawaii, who as mentioned above, has a defense ranking outside the top 100. Hawaii is also 4th worst in FBS in defending the pass, allowing 289.7 YPG passing. Memphis will have a great chance to get out to an early lead if Henigan gets rolling. If the Rainbow Warriors defense allows 300 yards passing for the game, the Tigers will run away with this one.
The Turnover Margin
One area that both teams have struggled with this season is turnovers. The Memphis Tigers have a -1 margin, having given up 17 turnovers on the season. Looking at Hawaii, they’ve struggled even more with a -2 margin and a 2nd worst in FBS with 29 total turnovers. This game may be messy if both teams fail to take care of the ball, though Memphis has a better track record for the season. At 29 turnovers in 12 games, if Memphis can force the Hawaii offense to 3 turnovers in this game, I like their chances with the better offense to capitalize on the extra opportunities.
On Third Down
Much like a lot of football games, the winner of the game is often associated with efficiency on third down. The Tigers offense ranks in the top half of FBS teams with a 40.6% conversation rate on third down. Against the Hawaii defense, the Tigers offense should do well moving the ball down the field. The Rainbow Warriors allow conversions on third down 46.2% of the time, which is in the bottom ten teams in college football. Given that Memphis is a pass-heavy offense, if they can be successful on third down in this game, it will open up the run game for them on third and short as well.
Memphis/Hawaii Bowl History
The 2021 “Hawaii Bowl” will be the first time these teams meet in a bowl game. Looking at the Tigers’ bowl history, the team is 6-8 in their 14 bowl games and coming off a bowl win last year over Florida Atlantic 25-10. Memphis hasn’t fared well over the past few years, though, as they are 1-6 in their last seven bowl games and 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl appearances. The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have also appeared in 14 bowl games, 10 of which being the “Hawaii Bowl”. Hawaii has an 8-6 bowl record and are 3-1 in their last four appearances, including wins in the last two over BYU and Houston. The team is also 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games, all 5 of which they were an underdog.
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The Memphis Tigers and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have no prior history playing each other. This year’s Hawaii Bowl will be the first matchup in both teams’ 100+ year history.
How the Public is Betting the Memphis vs. Hawaii
67% are betting the Tigers to cover the spread.
62% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 58.5.
Betting Trends Worth Noting
- The Memphis Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- The Memphis Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
- The Memphis Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.
- The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games as an underdog.
- The Under is 4-1-1 in the Tigers’ last six games.
- The Under is 7-1 in the Rainbow Warriors last eight games following an ATS win.
Collin’s Pick for the Hawaii Bowl
This year’s Hawaii Bowl features arguably the two worst teams to make a bowl this season. Memphis comes into the game with one of college football’s top passing offenses and will face one of the worst passing defenses in Hawaii. Hawaii has seen better fortune than Memphis in recent bowl history, but I see the Tigers being the team to break that trend. Take the Memphis Tigers to cover the 7-point spread.
Collin’s Hawaii Bowl Over/Under Pick
Given these teams’ recent point total trends, I see value on the over/under in this game. The Tigers and Rainbow Warriors having turnover issues throughout this season may lead to several empty offensive possessions. Also, taking into consideration that these teams have never played each other, it may take a few drives for each offense to make necessary adjustments. Take the under on the 58.5-point total. Bet your college bowl games for FREE this season by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).