No. 7 Miami Hurricanes (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. No. 2 Florida State Seminoles (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date and Time: Saturday November 2nd, 2013. 8:00PM Eastern
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee, F.L.
TV: ABC
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mia +22/FSU -22
Over/Under Total: 61
ESPN College GameDay will return to the ACC this Saturday when the no. 7 Miami Hurricanes travel up the road to Tallahassee to meet Jameis Winston and the no. 2 Florida State Seminoles. Just two weeks ago, the GameDay crew was on hand to watch Florida State destroy then no. 3 Clemson 51-14. That resounding victory vaulted the Seminoles into the National Championship hunt and also launched quarterback Jameis Winston into the front of the Heisman Trophy race. The Seminoles appear ready to retake their place among the best in college football for the first time since the golden years of the Bobby Bowden era but they have one big challenge remaining this week when the no. 7 Hurricanes roll into Tallahassee.
It seems impossible to beat Florida State right now considering how well they are playing. Bookmakers must agree considering the Seminoles opened as huge 22.5 favorites over the no. 7 team in the country. The Seminoles are performing better than any other team in the country collectively on both sides of the ball. Jameis Winston has been simply incredible completing 70% passing for 2,177 yards with 23 touchdowns and 4 picks on the season. Winston has added a lethal passing threat to an already dangerous rushing attack with running backs DeVonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr in the backfield. The end result has been an offense that is averaging 52.6 points per game which is the 3rd best mark in the country.
Still, the Seminoles are much more than just another flashy offense. Florida State’s defense is among the best in college football giving up just 13 points per game. The Seminoles defense showed just how physical and talented they are when they held Clemson to just 14 points. Before that game, Clemson was averaging well over 40 points per game. However the Seminoles defensive line dominated up front and the corners were able to be physical in coverage which is exactly what they will have to do again this weekend against Miami.
Miami’s offense does not have the firepower to get into a scoring shootout with the Seminoles. However the Hurricanes do have a very physical offense that can sustain long drives and eat up the clock. Sophomore tailback Duke Johnson is one of the best backs in the ACC and has rushed for 823 yards and 6 touchdowns already this season. Johnson has taken some pressure off of senior quarterback Stephen Morris which has been a big help for Hurricanes’ consistency on offense. Morris has had a well-known issue with turnovers during his stay in south Florida and those issues have lingered this season as well despite the fact the Hurricanes remain undefeated. Morris has thrown 8 picks this season compared to just 10 touchdowns. The Seminoles do not give up a lot of yards on the ground and it is safe to say that the defense will focus on stopping Duke Johnson and the run. If Miami is unable to get the run going against that tough defense, it will be interesting to see how Morris responds throwing the football and if those turnovers tendencies continue.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: With the added attention that will be on this game Saturday night, I do not see anything slowing Florida State down. Miami’s offense is fairly predictable and the Seminoles will keep pressure on Morris which will either create turnovers or keep the offense on the short side of the field, possibly both. I know an undefeated team at 7-0 during this point in the season getting 22.5 points is rather absurd but Miami is just a few plays away from being a 4-3 team. I believe Florida State will treat them like a 4-3 team and steamroll once again. Take the Seminoles -22!
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