Michigan Wolverines vs. Indiana Hoosiers Pick ATS

by | Nov 19, 2019 | cfb

Michigan Wolverines (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 3:30 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium – Bloomington, IN
TV: B1G Network

Point Spread: MICH -8.5 / IU +8.5 (WagerWeb)
Total: 51.5

Poll Rankings: Indiana +10

Takeaways From Week Twelve

The Wolverines will step into this game, feeling good about themselves. This is because Michigan just laid the wood to their cross-state rivals, Michigan State in what was nothing short of a rout. Closing as a 13.5-point favorite, the Wolverines hosted the Spartans and steamrolled Michigan State by a score of 44-10. The Hoosiers were last in action this past Saturday when they took to the road to square off with Penn State in Happy Valley. The Hoosiers were able to cash in as they fell to the Nittany Lions by a score of 34-27 as a +15 favorite.

How the Public is Betting the Michigan- Indiana Game

69% of the consensus like the Wolverines here in this spot and are willing to lay the points. Thanks to the heavy lean by the public, we have seen the move by half of a point upward from Michigan opening as an eight-point favorite.

The Historicals

In 2018, Michigan hosted the Hoosiers in Ann Arbor and defeated them by a score of 41-30. However, Michigan failed to cover when it closed as a 28-point favorite.

Betting Trends

Overall, Indiana has been quite profitable as of late in this series as they have gone 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Both teams also enter into this tilt on cover streaks on the season as Michigan has covered in their previous four fixtures while Indiana has greened up in three consecutive matches.

Injury Concerns

Highlighting a notable injury that we covered in our Penn State vs. Indiana play last week, Indiana Quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. will be out for the remainder of the season due to a broken collarbone. Penix, as mentioned, has served as a complement to incumbent starter Peyton Ramsey who now exclusively operates the Hoosier offense.

Why We Like Indiana To Cover

For the Michigan Wolverines, there is a gigantic match-up waiting around the corner for them on Thanksgiving weekend. This, of course, is none other than a rivalry clash known simply as “The Game”. Michigan’s old nemesis Ohio State will be coming to Ann Arbor in a game that could ultimately determine College Football Playoff implications if the Buckeyes come in undefeated. If Ohio State were to lose against Penn State somehow, the game would determine who plays for the B1G championship as the winner would take all should Michigan take care of business at “The Rock”. With these narratives circulating around, I can’t help but imagine that Michigan may be distracted and caught looking ahead. After all, Michigan has been owned by Ohio State, and there is little doubt that a win against the Buckeyes would silence a lot of the whispers against coach Jim Harbaugh since he never beat them. Speaking into a similar context, Michigan has owned Indiana and has won 23 straight against the Hoosiers. There is a strong possibility that Michigan can take this contest for granted as a result, and that is very dangerous considering this is one of Indiana’s better chances at ending their losing streak against the Maize and Blue.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Indiana +8.5

Some other sports betting sites may imply that the Wolverines are actually undervalued. However, I do not surmise that this is the case here. The Michigan win-streak against Indiana will position the Wolverines to be extremely overvalued. Indiana is sick and tired of being bullied by Michigan in this series, and this will give them extra motivation. Be that as it may, Indiana has played Michigan tough in the last four bouts between these two as overtime was required in two of these contests, and the margin of defeat was no higher than 11 in any of these meetings. Indiana is desperate to get over the hump against Michigan, and for that reason, you can also bet that the atmosphere in Bloomington will be akin to a bowl game. I expect the Hoosiers to come out swinging and throw the kitchen sink at Michigan. Mirroring what we saw last week in IU’s match-up with Penn State, I see this being a one-score game in either direction filled to the brim with drama. The touchdown-plus two-point conversion bodes tremendous equity, and therefore, the points are the recommendation. However, I must stress that upset potential is high in this contest.

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