Michigan Wolverines vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Point Spread Pick
Michigan Wolverines (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) v. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0 SU, 5-5-1 ATS)
NCAA Week 13
When: Saturday, November 26 at 12 pm ET
Where: Ohio Stadium – Columbus, OH
Point Spread: MICH +7.5/OSU -7.5 (Have you seen the live wagering platform at Bovada Sportsbook? It’s amazing! All one one page and runs smooth! They’ll give you a 50% bonus and rebates on ALL your bets; even if they win!
Over/Under Total: 57
It is rivalry week for everyone in the Big Ten but let’s be honest; there is really only one game to watch this weekend. The annual Ohio State-Michigan is important in any season, but this year carries extra implications given both teams are legitimate national championship contenders. The 2006 season saw the teams enter as the #1 and #2 seeds in the then BCS rankings, and everything was on the line. This Saturday certainly carries a similar weight, and Ohio State will be looking for revenge after Michigan broke an eight-game losing streak last year with a 42-27 win. Michigan holds a 59-51-6 lead in the overall series, but OSU has won 17 of the last 20 meetings when you include the 2010 game that was later vacated. Despite that long-term trend favoring OSU, the teams have split the last four games over that span when both enter as top-5 teams.
Michigan has played well as the visitor, going 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road, and they have 12 wins against the spread in their last 17 when playing a Big Ten foe. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series, with the dog getting the Moneyline win in two of those five contests. Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five at home, but they have just two ATS wins in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. The Under is 9-3 in the last twelve Michigan games overall and 6-2 when Michigan plays inside the conference. Just about every arrow points to the Over when OSU plays, including an 8-1 mark in the last nine overall and a five-game win streak at The Shoe. The Over has hit in 16 of the last 21 in this series overall, with a 6-2 mark in the last eight in Columbus. In early betting, about 60% of the public money is going on Michigan’s side, with 55% of bets coming in on the Over.
Michigan got everything it could handle last week against Illinois, and while they gutted out a 19-17 win, the Wolverines were hit with a handful of potentially key injuries. Blake Corum left last week’s game with a knee injury, and while he has personally stated he would be ready, no update has been given by the team, and he remains questionable. Corum is third in the nation with 1,457 rushing yards, and his 18 rushing touchdowns are second in the NCAA. Donovan Edwards’ 6.7 yards per carry leads the team, but he is also questionable, with Jim Harbaugh saying that neither Edwards or Corum would suit up unless they made it back to the practice field. Michigan enters the week with the 100th-ranked passing offense but has surged to 11-0 behind the 4th-best rushing offense. They absolutely need their best backs on Saturday. TE Luke Schoonmaker is second on the team with 30 receptions despite missing three games this season. He remains questionable for Saturday. That could leave J.J. McCarthy without several contributors in a game where Michigan will need to put up points. McCarthy has established himself as one of the best dual-threat QBs in the conference, with 14 passing touchdowns against two interceptions and three rushing scores. Ronnie Bell (48-641-2) leads the team in receptions and yards. The Wolverine defense is the best in the nation in terms of total yards allowed per game and 2nd in rushing yards and points allowed. Ohio State averages 46.5 points per game and is the best offense Michigan has faced this season. The Wolverines have not been great in generating turnovers, which will probably have to change on Saturday to help keep OSU from pushing that 40-point threshold.
More Picks: Get Dan’s Baylor at Texas Spread Winner 11/25/22
Finish the March
Ohio State was thinking about a playoff berth from Week 1, and they have largely cruised to their current 11-0 mark. There have been stumbles in the past few weeks against Northwestern and Maryland, but OSU still carved out double-digit wins in those contests despite some unforced errors. The offense ranks 9th at just under 500 yards per game on average, with both the pass and rush games ranked inside the top 20. The Buckeyes have hit the 40-point mark in nine of eleven games while holding opponents to 16.9 points per game. QB C.J. Stroud is a Heisman hopeful with 35 touchdown passes and nearly 3,000 passing yards, and he might have the best receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison is 8th in the NCAA with 1,037 receiving yards, and his 11 touchdowns are good for 3rd. Emeka Egbuka needs 86 yards to join Harrison at 1,000 receiving yards on the season, and he is second on the team with eight receiving scores. Miyan Williams and Treveyon Henderson have combined for 1,354 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, but both are battling lower body injuries. With both Michigan and OSU’s backfields ailing, this one could come down to what team gets more out of their RB depth. Ohio State trails Michigan in most defensive rankings, but OSU is 9th in total yards allowed and sits inside the top-15 in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game.
Ohio State Stays Perfect and Covers
This game is never short on hype, but it rarely produces close results, with just one game decided by single digits in the last seven seasons. Ohio State knows it needs to take care of business to keep its CFP goals alive, and they owe Michigan one from last year. That is not a good scenario for the Wolverines in general, and their general lack of health with key playmakers makes things worse. It is plausible that the quarterbacks cancel each other out on Saturday, but OSU has a true difference maker in Harrison, Jr., and there appears to be no way to stop him lately. Corum is equally important to Michigan’s offense, but it’s hard to imagine him having a game-changing impact, given his knee issue. Michigan wasn’t looking ahead to this week when they struggled against Illinois. The Wolverines struggled against a defense that was capable of stopping the run and setting up long down-and-distance scenarios. Ohio State can create the same kind of situations, and they have the offense to capitalize where Illinois really couldn’t. It won’t be easy for OSU, but the home crowd is going home happy with a 38-24 win.
Pick to Cover the Spread: