Michigan Wolverines (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 4:00 PM ET
Where: Ross Ade Stadium West Lafayette, IN
TV: BIG TEN NETWORK
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: PUR +10
The Michigan Wolverines will hit the road and head to West Lafayette, Indiana to meet with the Purdue University Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on Saturday, September 23rd at 4:00 PM ET. The game will be televised on the Big Ten Network and is one of domestic interest given the fact it is the Big Ten induction for both squads. The Boilermakers are currently under the guidance of first-year Head Coach Jeff Brohm who was the architect of the prodigal Western Kentucky offense. The Hilltoppers have felt the effects of Brohms departure to the fullest extent. On the contrary, Purdues offense appears to be far more catalytic under Brohm since he came to town. In their most recent endeavor, the Boilermakers schooled the Missouri Tigers by a score of 35-3 despite closing as a six-point road underdog. For Michigan, the Wolverines coasted by the Air Force Falcons in the Big House in route to a 29-13 victory.
For years, many Purdue faithful have wondered when their team would return to a state of relevance or formidability. Jeff Brohm seems to have finally answered those questions. Purdue comes in with one of the most impressive 2-1 resumes in all of America. The Boilermakers sole defeat this season was a 35-28 loss to Louisville. However, in that market Purdue was priced as a 25.5-point dog and they took it to a team that was in the top-five in 2016 and also features a returning Heisman winner. After the early loss, Purdue would follow these results up with crushing back-to-back wins against Ohio and Missouri where the Boilermakers would perform far better than the analysis and prognostication set for them. The Freightliners are in position here to take it to an old and hated rival. Michigan has dominated this rivalry as of late with their surge toward Big Ten contention. With a culture change imminent in West Lafayette, this game sets up perfectly as a trap for the Wolverines. To the naked eye, the initial offering in some markets has prompted a huge heap of action to roll in on Michigan and here we see Purdue now as a double-digit home underdog.
As we have stated before, laying chalk invokes risk and liabilities. This is especially true considering the Wolverines were overvalued against both Cincinnati and Air Force. The only time Michigan was successful in generating a cover was when it had its way with Florida. But with respect to this, the Gators were without ten starters and even then Michigan had trouble getting to the front for a significant portion of the match. When reviewing Floridas performance against Tennessee, it is clearly evident that Michigan took advantage of a weaker opponent and the contest result by no means bolsters the credentials of the Wolverines. Purdue has the chance to be the Maize and Blues biggest test season-to-date. This contest is not in The Big House and features a team that has proven to be a live dog already this season on several occasions.
This game has all the makings to stage an upset that rocks the college football landscape. As we recall, Michigan was an 18-point favorite against Iowa on the road in 2016. The Wolverines would close spotting three touchdowns. Michigan would not only fail to cover but they would be upset by a late field goal. This team has a propensity for let-downs and has suffered many hiccups when they are in a pole position. Purdue will enter this fixture with reckless abandon. A win here for the Boilermakers can alter the course and direction of this program and they may very well treat this meeting as a bowl game. Success in this bout will be instrumental in the Purdue turnaround and even if they fall short, a close defeat signals the times are changing. The Boilermakers will be operating off of these narratives. Michigan should approach this contest with extreme caution and takers are urged to be very weary, this line is not a gift. The Maize and Blue should be placed under upset alert.
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