#4 Missouri Tigers (10-1) +2, 68.5 O/U at Kansas Jayhawks (11-0)
-2, 68.5 O/U Arrowhead Stadium, 8 PM Eastern, Saturday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Before the season started if you would have said the Missouri-Kansas
football game this Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium was the most
important game of the year, we would have made you pee in a cup to
check and see what you were smoking.
But that is exactly what it has become.
The Tiger-Jayhawk rivalry dates back to 1891, but its never been as
important as this years game. Not only will the winner clinch the
Big 12 Conference North title, but they will take one huge step
closer to the BCS Championship game as well.
For Kansas (11-0, 7-0 Big 12), who wasnt even ranked until the fifth
week of the season, this is by far the biggest football game in the
The same could be said for Missouri (10-1, 6-1), you could even argue
that this is the biggest game in school history, football or otherwise.
Playing at the neutral site of Kansas Citys Arrowhead Stadium, the
oddsmakers opened this game with Kansas as a two-point favorite, with
an over/under total of 68.
The game stands to be an offensive shootout, as both teams are led by
exciting quarterbacks who run spread offenses that put points on the
board like pinball machines.
Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing has already thrown for 2,910 yards
and 30 touchdowns, with only 4 interceptions. The Jayhawks led the
nation in turnover margin at plus-21, score 45.8 points per game (2nd
nationally), and dont shoot themselves in the foot either with
stupid penalties (only 4.18 penalties per game tied for 1st).
Missouri is the only school in the NCAA that has scored at least 30
points in every game this season, averaging 42.5 points per game
(6th). They amass 506.3 yards per game (4th) and are led by
quarterback Chase Daniel, who has thrown for 3,590 yards and 30
Its the defensive side of the ball where the two teams differ.
Kansas has a defense to rival their offense. The unit gives up just
14.2 points per game (2nd in NCAA), is 5th versus the run (84.3 ypg)
and 8th in overall yards (300 ypg). Their lone weakness is against
the pass, allowing over 215 yards a game.
Missouri on the other hand is ranked 59th overall (379.8 ypg) and is
also vulnerable to the pass, as they give up over 258 yards per game
via the air. They do sport a bend but dont break attitude, as they
only allow 23 points per game.
Kansas is not just machine-like on offense, they are also a machine
when it comes to covering the spread. The Jayhawks are a remarkable
10-0 versus the number this year, including a flawless 6-0 mark at
home. Surprisingly, they are just 5-5 versus the total.
Missouri is also a very strong team for sports bettors, covering the
number at an 8-2 clip. The Tigers have covered in all five road games
this year, and are also an impressive 8-2 versus the total, including
the last four games in a row.
Oddsmakers must have done their homework on this game, because the
Jayhawks opened as a two-point favorite and the number hasnt moved
at all. Some sportsbooks have moved the total up a half-point to
68.5, an indication that the public seems to think these two offenses
will run it up.
Badgers Pick: I really like the under in this game, mainly because
I think both teams will be so jacked up and nervous at the start that
they will struggle to get on track. The slow start will make it hard
to cover the high total. Missouri seems to have played against
stronger teams too (Illinois, Oklahoma, Mississippi), whereas Kansas
has beaten up on Toledo, Florida Int. and Baylor. If you have to pick
a side, take Missouri and the points in this one.