Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks
Friday, September 11, 2026
8:00 PM ET, David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Missouri is a 6.5-point road favorite in Friday night’s Border War in Lawrence. The total is 50.5. My play is Missouri to cover.
Two things about Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri teams that matter here. His squads are 8-1 straight up as road favorites. They’re 7-2 against the spread in that same profile. Nine games, seven covers. That’s a coach and program that show up when they’re expected to win on the road, and they don’t let the game slip in the fourth quarter. Rivalry environment doesn’t change that. If anything, Drinkwitz has thrived on the road in these emotional matchups.
Austin Simmons made his Missouri debut last Wednesday against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and went 17-of-19 for 252 yards and four touchdowns. Nineteen pass attempts, seventeen completions. That’s 89 percent. Yes, it was UAPB. But that kind of accuracy and comfort in the pocket for a first-year starting quarterback is a real indicator. Simmons isn’t going to have that same efficiency against a Kansas defense that returns experienced pieces, but he’s shown he can command the offense.
Kansas has the harder problem at quarterback. Isaiah Marshall is only in his third career start. Against Long Island last week he was efficient, but LIU is an FCS opponent. His first real test against a Power Four defense is Friday, and Missouri’s defense returns most of the front seven that held opponents in check last year. Third career start against your biggest rival in a night game at home is a lot to ask of a young quarterback.
Look at last year’s meeting. Missouri won 42-31 in Columbia. That’s an 11-point margin at home. Home field in a rivalry game is worth roughly three points. Flip the site to Lawrence and the natural expectation is Missouri by 7-8, right at the current spread. If Missouri has grown any at all as a program from year to year (and going 10-3 last year suggests they have), they should win by more than the line suggests.
The line movement is worth noting. It opened Missouri -7 and drifted to -5.5 to -6.5 depending on the book, with the total dropping from 51.5 to 50.5. That’s Kansas money and Under money. Sharp bettors are backing the home dog in the rivalry spot. That’s reasonable. But it also means we’re getting a better number than the opener, and buying Missouri closer to -5.5 or -6 at the right book improves the equity of the play.
Kansas will play hard. They’ll try to make Lawrence loud early. But Isaiah Marshall in his third career start against Drinkwitz’s Missouri defense doesn’t translate into 24+ points and the kind of pressure needed to keep this inside a touchdown.
The Pick: Missouri Tigers -6.5. Bet your Week two Ncaa football predictions for FREE by scoring a sweet 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when using bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!!
