Navy Midshipmen (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. San Jose State Spartans (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date and Time: Friday November 22nd, 2013. 9:30PM Eastern
Where: Spartan Stadium San Jose, C.A.
TV: ESPN2
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Navy +1.5/SJSU -1.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
The San Jose State Spartans look to become bowl eligible
this Friday night when they host the Navy Midshipmen inside
Spartan Stadium with ESPN2 cameras on hand. For San Jose State, this will
be their 2nd Friday night game this season and they will also take the Friday
night stage next week in a big game with Fresno State. The Spartans must
pull out at least 1 victory over these final two games in order to become
bowl eligible for the 2nd straight season and for just the 10th time in
school history.
The visiting Midshipmen have already notched their bid to the postseason following back to back victories over Hawaii and South Alabama. Navy opened as a slight 1.5 point underdog but they have covered 4 of their 5 games this year as dogs. While the servicemen appear to be the better team judging on performance this season, San Jose State has beaten Navy in each of the past two seasons which has been the only two meetings in either school’s history.
In both prior meetings, the Spartans posted over 300 yards passing and overwhelmed Navy’s defense with their speed. This season San Jose State is again an extremely talented passing offense behind quarterback David Fales who is averaging more than 300 passing yards per game at the helm of the 11th best passing offense in college football. While Fales’ has had a fairly decent season with 22 touchdowns and 12 picks, wide receiver Chandler Jones may just be one of the best players that you never heard of. Jones has caught 64 passes for 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns this season while averaging just less than 20 yards per catch. He has been the big playmaker for the offense and he will be a tough match-up for Navy’s secondary again this Friday.
While Navy will focus on slowing down Jones, the San Jose State’s defense will also face a lofty challenge this Friday. Ironically this game features two completely different styles of offense. San Jose State likes to throw the ball around and stretch the field but Navy comes right at opponents with their dynamic rushing attack. Navy has been able to run the ball on everyone and that is not good for an already weak Spartans defense. The Spartans statistically have one of the worse defenses in the country giving up 31.1 points per game (90th in FBS) and 201 yards per game on the ground (99th in FBS). Navy as always will attack San Jose State with their patented triple option rushing attack that currently averages a whopping 308 yards per game (5th in FBS).
Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds is 2nd in the nation with 19 rushing touchdowns and has tallied 884 yards on the year. Outside of Reynolds, Navy tends to have a run by committee approach to their offense. Coach Ken Niumatalolo will get his two deep tailbacks, fullbacks, and even wide receivers involved in the run game. The Spartans have played well against the run in both of their prior meetings against Navy despite having horrible defenses statistically. It will be interesting to see if the Spartans can live up to that trend again this Friday or if the defense will finally succumb to the Midshipmen rushing offense.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I believe the wrong team is favored in this game simply because Navy is on the road and San Jose State needs a win fairly bad. However, Navy is the much more complete football team in this game. Obviously, the offensive styles differ greatly but San Jose State has sort of had streaks where they have been solid and then streaks where they could not move the ball at all. I think Navy will consistently move the ball and find ways to come up with stops on the defensive side of the football. Take Navy +1.5
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