Nevada Wolf Pack (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Home Team (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date and Time: Friday October 4, 2013 9pm EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA
TV: ESPN
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Nev +4.5/SDST -4.5
Over/Under Total: 57
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Nevada trudges along to San Diego on Friday in an effort to abolish the San Diego Aztecs on live television before around 20,000 impatient Aztec supporters. SDSU has been blown out by Eastern Illinois and Ohio State before rebounding against Oregon State; losing by 4. Nevada comes into the contest bundling a 2 game win streak against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents Air Force and Hawaii. Recent objective power rankings place San Diego State 95th among 124 college football teams going into week #6. Nevada, using the same criteria, sits neatly at 82nd in the national ranking. Notably, the Aztecs only victorycoming last weekend—was against the 124th (end-of-the-line-last) ranked team New Mexico State by a 10 point margin. Lets take a quick look at who might cover the spread in this collision of Colossals!
The Aztecs seem to be clowning around this year on the football field. After getting drilled by Eastern Illinois, the Azzies were completely dominated by Ohio State in embarrassing fashion. They Azzies did bounce back to play competitively in a 34-30 loss to Oregon State, but their lone win against a terrible New Mexico State team (26-16) has left much of SDSUs hopes for 2013 close to an on-campus dumpster. At first glance, picking the Aztecs to accomplish anything other than producing a pretentious sideline show of a Section-8 Aztec character (Montezuma??) running around with a polyester loin cloth and Halloween jewelry is beyond the obvious proof in the numbers. Truly, Monty (Montezuma-the mascot) looks like a drunken sailor on shore leave and should be wrestled to the ground by security and shown the exit. The Warrior Shield appears to be made by a 3rd Grader assisted by an over-involved mother Hell-bent on forcing herself on everyone and everybody she comes in contact with! I am in NO WAY a supporter of the Name Changing Brigade but Monty the Mascot looks more like a Fraternity prank than an honest attempt of respectfully displaying a sturdy and historic culture! Im certain some will say, You just dont get it; you dont go to SDSU and youre not from San Diego! That is all true and it doesnt change anything other than my intuition to re-read The Emperors New Clothes once again! In defense of the Azzies 4.5 Fav. status, SDSU is playing at home influenced by the Warrior Walk, Honorary Warrior, the Warrior Shield, and all the other nonsense that disperses like a mist into the balmy southern California night the 1st time helmets crack. Home-Field advantage is an ingredient in any quantitative Predict em process and SDSU wins just over 60% of their home games at Qualcomm Stadium (formerly known as Jack Murphy Stadium). In The Business, we call that A Non-Advantage. Missing because of injury is middle linebacker and defensive captain Jake Fely (broken foot last week) who most consider the best player on the Aztecs team. Lets take a look at the Wolf Pack to get a sharper focus predicting a winner in this matchup!
Nevada is finally healthy for the first time since the 2013 opener. QB Cody Fajardo is finally cleared to play (he did play in last weeks win over Air Force) and pronounced Fully Healthy by Nevada trainers although Fajardo will wear a knee brace. Fajardo is the key to Nevadas success and was voted 2nd team All-MWC for his 2012 performances. Fajardo sat out the Florida State and Hawaii games but came back last week against Air Force to toss the rock 54 times completing 38 of them for 389 yards. If Fajardo is healthy the Aztecs will have a very difficult time keeping up with changes on the scoreboard the Wolf Pack will post. It is time to pick a winner.
In the MWC, a team MUST score points to be competitive! Against the level of competition SDSU has played, the Aztecs have been atrocious offensively. Nevada has played pretty decent against a great UCLA team and throwing out the Florida State game (Fajardo was riding the pine because of injury), Nevada is a much better football team than SDSU. Throw in the season ending injury to Aztec team leader Jake Fely, and this game is pretty easy to pick! I have no idea why the numbers are pointing in the Aztec favor according to Vegas??? Picking the Wolf Pack to cover AND straight up looks like a stinkin bargain of the entire college football year!!!!
Tims Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5 and SU!!
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