Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U vs. Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) 8-3 ATS, 6-5 O/U Saturday December 19, 2009 New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM 4:30 p.m. EST TV: ESPN
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Fresno State -12.5/Wyoming +12.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs are a scrappy football team that usually plays well against whomever they run into after the regular season, but will the Wyoming Cowboys give the dogs a run for their money in the New Mexico Bowl? I dont think so. The Bulldogs are too much for the Cowboys in this game as they will dominate on both sides of the ball albeit their defense is suspect.
Fresno State comes into this game averaging 34.3 points per game and over 435 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs average 204 yards passing, and 231 yards rushing per contest. If we break those numbers down it means the Dogs are good for 5.4 yards per run and 8.1 yards per pass play. Needless to say, the Dogs dont have a problem with three and outs.
Wyoming enters the New Mexico Bowl averaging 16 points per game and 298 yards of total offense per game. The Cowboys gain 170 through the air and 128 on the ground. Defensively, the Cowboys give up 27.2 points per game; 225 passing and 170 in rushing yards.
The Bulldogs allow 27.8 points per game to their opponents with 199 yards passing and 212 yards rushing.
Fresno State is entering this game after a 1-point loss 53-52 to Illinois on December 5. Wyoming is coming into this contest after 1-point win over the Colorado State Rams. Wyoming has won just two of their last six games while Fresno State has won five of their last six contests.
The Bulldogs QB, Ryan Colburn, will have the slight edge on paper as he has 2333 yards passing on the season and a 60.2 percent completion rate. Colburn has tossed 18 TD passes and 11 interceptions while averaging 8.3 yards per completed pass play.
Wyomings QB, Austyn Carta-Samuels, has thrown for 1749 yards this year with a 59 percent completion rate. He has 7 touchdown passes and 4 INTs for an average of 5.93 yards per pass play.
The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The over is 6-2 in Fresno States last 8 bowl games. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games following a SU win. Wyoming is also 4-1 in their last 5 games against WAC opponents. However, the Cowboys are just 3-13-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games versus the MWC.
In the last three years Fresno State is 1-1 ATS in bowl games and 6-5 ATS overall since 1992. The Bulldogs are 5-6 SU in bowl games since 1992. The Bulldogs are 20-30 ATS as the favorite since 1992. They are 41-9 SU since 1992 as the favorite.
Wyoming is not used to playing in the post season as they are just 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U and 1-1 SU in bowl games dating back to 1992. Since 1992 the Cowboys are 20-40 SU (50 %) against teams with a winning record.
The line on this game opened at Fresno State -10.5 with a total of 55. Most offshore casinos are showing the Bulldogs -12.5 also with a total of 55. The Las Vegas Hilton has Fresno State -13, while Caesars Palace and the MGM are posting the Bulldogs -12, but all three are showing the total at 54.5.
The Bulldogs defense can give up some points but their offense will prevail over the Cowboys. Fresno State is too tough and more experienced in bowl game atmosphere.
Wilsons Pick: Fresno State will cover. Bulldogs 41, Cowboys 17. Luck to ya.