Notre Dame vs North Carolina Free Pick

by | Sep 20, 2022 | cfb

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2 SU / ATS 1-2-0 vs North Carolina Tar Heels 3-0 SU / ATS
1-0-1

Date: Saturday, September 24th

Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Fighting Irish -1.0/Tar Heels +1.0 (Wagerweb - Make the Tar Heels a +21 underdog by inserting  them into a massive 20 point college football teaser found here!)

Money Line: Fighting Irish -115/Tar Heels -107

Over/Under: 60

RECENT FORM

This season, the Fighting Irish have an overall record of 1-2. This season, the Fighting Irish
have been favored in 2 games while posting an ATS mark of 1-2-0. Their average over-under betting
line is 49.33 leading to an over-under record of 0-2-1.

In their most recent game, the Fighting Irish defeated California by a score of 24-17. But,
they were unable to grab the ATS win, as their 7 was not enough to cover the spread. In the win,
Notre Dame completed 73.9% of their 23 passes, 2 of which resulted in touchdowns. On the ground,
the team ended with 1 rushing touchdown, while averaging 3.6 yards per carry for a total of 147
yards.

The team’s leading quarterback is Tyler Buchner, who comes into the game with a passer rating
of 63.58. Heading into this week’s game, he has a total of 378 passing yards. So far, the team’s
most productive wide receiver is Lorenzo Styles, who has caught 11 passes for a total of 152
yards. The Fighting Irish have turned to running back Audric Estime a total of 37 times for a
total of 130 rushing yards.

So far, the Tar Heels have an overall record of 3-0 and have not played a game in the Atlantic
Coast. This season, the Tar Heels have been favored in 1 game while posting an ATS mark of 1-0-1.
Their average over-under betting line is 40.17 leading to an over-under record of 1-1-0.

In their previous game, the Tar Heels picked up a 35-28 home win over Georgia State. This was
an impressive victory as they were also the 7.0 point underdogs. In the win, North Carolina
completed 79.2 of their 24 passes, 2 of which resulted in touchdowns. The team ended the game
with 3 rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 183 yards on the ground.

Drake Maye heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of
138.8 on a total of 930 yards through the air. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver
is Kobe Paysour, who has caught 14 passes for a total of 172 yards. In the run game, Omarion
Hampton has accumulated 228 on 38 attempts to lead the team.

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BETTING TRENDS

Notre Dame have gone 7-3-0 over their last 10 contests, including posting an ATS record 7-3-0. Their last 10 over-under record comes in at 3-6-1. Notre Dame has a positive scoring differential in these games, averaging 32.7 points per-game and allowing 17.4.

Against the spread, the Tar Heels have gone 3-6-1 over their last 10 games. Straight up they have a record of 6-4-0. The team’s average scoring differential was 2.9, as they averaged 39.9 points per-game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 37.0. Their last 10 over-under record is 7-3-0.

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Fighting Irish will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 115th in the NCAA in points scored.

This season, Notre Dame has struggled to move the ball through the air, averaging just 182.67 passing yards per-game. This week, the Fighting Irish will be facing a North Carolina defense that is ranked 142nd in pass yards allowed per-game. So far, they are averaging 199.0 yards per-game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50 in passing defense.

So far, the Notre Dame offense is averaging just 117.67 yards per-game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 36.0 rush attempts per-game (74th). This week, the Fighting Irish will be facing a North Carolina defense ranked 189th in rush yards allowed per-game. This year, they have averaged 111.5 yards per-game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into the game, the Fighting Irish will hope for some improved play from their defense, as they are currently 53rd at 21.33 points per-game allowed.

So far, the Tar Heels are averaging 51.33 points per-game on offense, which is good for 6th most in college football.

In the passing game, the Tar Heels are currently one of the leading groups in the country, at 310.0 yards per-game through the air. This week, the Tar Heels will be facing a Notre Dame defense ranked 40th in pass yards allowed per-game. So far, they have averaged 289.0 yards per-game when facing top 25 pass defenses.

On the ground, the North Carolina offense is averaging 237.33 yards per-game, good for 14th in the country. This has come while ranking 42nd in attempts at 40.0 per-game. This week, the Tar Heels will be facing a Notre Dame defense that is ranked 109th in rush yards allowed per-game. So far, they are averaging 248.5 yards per-game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into the game, the Tar Heels will hope for some improved play from their defense, as they are currently 119th at 37.67 points per-game allowed.

More Picks: NUI at Kentucky Predicted Point Spread Winner 9/24/22

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