Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick 9/28/19
Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)
When: Saturday, September 28th, 2019 – 7:30 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium – Lincoln, NE
Point Spread: OSU -16.5/NEB +16.5 (BetNow)
Poll Rankings: Nebraska +23
Takeaways From Week 4
The Buckeyes look like a machine as they come into this game undefeated on the season while also riding a three-game cover streak against the spread. Over this span, the Bucks have covered lofty lines as heavy chalk, providing takers with a green up while priced as -14.5, -17, and most recently -38.5. Ohio State was in action last Saturday when it hosted the Miami Ohio Redhawks and absolutely went to work on the in-state adversary, rolling Miami 76-5.
Nebraska comes into this contest once again dodging a bullet as they found themselves tangled in an upset scare against the improved Fighting Illini of Illinois. The Huskers traveled to Champaign as a 13.5-point favorite and left town with a 42-38 win. Nebraska would inch to the front with the game-winner half-way through the fourth after trailing Illinois 38-35.
How the Public is Betting the Ohio State- Nebraska Game
77% of the betting public fancy the Buckeyes here laying the cornucopia of road points. As a result of this substantial lean, the resultant line has gone wacky in the opening stages as some books had to reset their lines after initially opening with Ohio State as a touchdown favorite.
The Buckeyes and Cornhuskers have crossed paths on five occasions in the previous eight years. At the present moment, the Scarlet and Gray hold a four-game win streak over the Cornhuskers. Last year’s collision in Columbus was full of drama as The Ohio State University escaped with a 36-31 win despite closing as 17-point chalk.
The most noteworthy trend in this series is the fact the Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two storied programs. For those that like playing Over/Under markets, the Over is also 4-1 ATS over these aforementioned five contests.
Nebraska’s lead rusher Maurice Washington (268 rushing yards on the season) is listed as day-to-day after suffering both a head and right-hand injury in the Huskers’ last game against Illinois on Saturday. His status remains an uncertainty.
Why We Like Nebraska To Cover
I have been keeping an eye on this game since the summer as Ohio State was priced in the -10 range in future game markets and that number quickly fell to -8 by virtue of some “professional” money that rolled in on Nebraska. As mentioned, Nebraska was priced far lower as a touchdown underdog until some other books came out with the Cornhuskers as a 14.5 and 15.5-point underdog in which the line was bet up to its present juncture; this also resonates with me. In a nutshell, the Huskers epitomize the term “value play” here as they are almost certainly working with more points than they should be granted. Nonetheless, some other betting sites may argue the opposite and that Nebraska is in fact overvalued, but I genuinely find that hard to believe considering Ohio State has been a heavy public play for four weeks straight this season and covered easily in their last three markets. If anything, Ohio State’s profitable body of work against the spread combined with Nebraska’s lack of profitability for that matter would set up the Buckeyes to be overvalued, and that is how I am playing this one.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Nebraska +16.5
Last week in Champaign, the Huskers were in a notorious look-ahead spot, and it showed. Clearly, Scott Frost had his team looking past the lowly Illini and fixated on their home tilt against the Buckeyes, and I can certainly understand why this is Nebraska’s best shot at beating the B1G nemesis under his tenure as Head Coach. The good news is for the Huskers is that they have already had an ugly win in Week One against South Alabama which deflated the hype that surrounded them and while they were at it they have already lost in overtime in a hostile environment to an old foe in Colorado. Then, of course, Nebraska had to overcome itself on the road last week against a live dog looking to stage an upset and get itself back to relevance in Illinois. However, Ohio State has undergone none of this. The Buckeyes have thumped everything they have come across and have done so in the cozy comforts of home for three of these four fixtures. This will be the Buckeyes’ first true test of the season in a prime-time collision before a national audience in a lively environment against a historical heavyweight who evidently had its calendar circled for this game. This is Nebraska’s best shot to get back to prominence, and I expect them to treat this like a bowl game more than a mere conference match-up. The upset possibility in this game is extraordinary and be that as it may, we have more than plenty of points to work with. Bet this game and all your Week 5 college football games for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% bonus up to $1000 at MyBookie Sportsbook!