Oklahoma Sooners (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (1-2 SU, 0-2 ATS), Week 4 NCAA Football, 6:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, September 25, 2010, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio. TV: ESPN2
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: University of Oklahoma -14/Cinci +14
Over/Under Total: 52
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No Sam Bradford, no problem. With the former Heisman Trophy winner now in the NFL, the Oklahoma Sooners have moved on rather nicely, as they have started the season with a 3-0 record under new star QB Landry Jones and Heisman candidate RB DeMarco Murray. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has not fared well thus far in its first year after the Tony Pike era. With their own star QB gone, the Bearcats have started off 1-2 with its only win coming over Indiana State.
Cincinnati opened its season with a 28-14 win at Fresno State before defeating Indiana State at home, 40-7. Last Thursday, the Bearcats lost at North Carolina State, 30-19. The Bearcats were down 30-7 in the fourth quarter before scoring the final two touchdowns. QB Zach Collaros did just fine, as he went 19-for-31 passing for 310 yards and three touchdowns. Collaros also ran the ball 22 times for 32 yards. Other than him, the Bearcats only ran the ball nine times for 43 yards. WR DJ Woods had six receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Armon Binns had six receptions for 95 yards. Marcus Barnett had five receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown. But the Bearcats played terrible defense. NC State isn’t even a strong offensive team at all and Cincy allowed 333 passing yards and 158 rushing yards.
Oklahoma opened its season with a 31-24 win over Utah State. That lackluster performance wasn’t very encouraging for the Sooners but they rebounded the next week with a dominating 47-17 win over Florida State, a team that was ranked No. 17 at the time. Last week, the Sooners improved to 3-0 with a narrow 27-24 win over Air Force. Jones was 26-for-42 passing for 254 yards and a touchdown. RB DeMarco Murray ran the ball 26 times for 110 yards and two touchdowns. WR Ryan Broyles had 10 receptions for 116 yards. The Sooners allowed 351 rushing yards on 63 carries.
For the season, Jones has 851 passing yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 61.9 percent of his pass attempts. Murray has 369 rushing yards and six touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Broyles has 31 receptions for 382 yards and three touchdowns.
Collaros has 659 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 60.7 percent of his pass attempts. The Bearcats are a very balanced offensive team this season but they haven’t been dominant in either the pass or the run.
Oklahoma is allowing 223.3 passing yards per game, while Cincinnati is allowing 247 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma is allowing 184.7 rushing yards per game but that includes the 351 yards against an option-running Air Force team. The Sooners are allowing 4.2 yards per carry. Cincinnati is only allowing 100 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry, so it may be a tough day for Murray on Saturday. It could come down to Jones and Broyles making plays for the Sooners in the passing game. Cincy is very reliant on Collaros, so all the Sooners need to do is contain him to limit the Cincy offense.
Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards the previous game. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win. Cincy is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss, 0-4 ATS in its last four home games, 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games, 0-4 ATS in its last four September games, and 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall. The under is 5-0 in Oklahoma’s last five road games and 6-1 in its last seven September game. The under is 4-1 in Cincy’s last five September games.
Ryno’s Pick to Beat the Spread: This game reminds me of last week’s Husker/Huskies game. The home team was given too much respect and the bigger, better faster team came in and conquered them. I see the same thing happening here with Oklahoma rolling the Bearcats. I’m fading the 3 point line move and laying the points with the Sooners!